Major Signal: The risk of "sell the fact" approaches as the Fed cuts interest rates, Standard Chartered reiterates: BTC may surge to $200,000 by the end of the year.

The cryptocurrency market has largely digested the potential 25 basis points (bps) rate cut expectations ahead of the Fed's meeting on October 29, which makes the risk of “Sell the News” imminent. The previous rate cut in September caused the market to rapidly evaporate $60 billion, and analyst Ali Martinez warned that this could happen again. However, analysts like Geoff Kendrick from Standard Chartered believe that in the long run, the Fed's rate cut cycle will become a catalyst for Bitcoin's price to continue to rise, reiterating their bullish prediction of reaching $200,000 by the end of the year. Market sentiment is also being complexly influenced by macro events such as China-U.S. trade negotiations and the U.S. government shutdown.

Short-term Risks: Fed Rate Cuts May Trigger a “Sell the Fact” Market

The market widely expects that the Fed meeting on October 29 will announce a rate cut, but historical experience shows that when the market has already priced in favorable news, the actual event may trigger profit-taking.

· Rate cut expectations have been mostly priced in: The market bets that the probability of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points is as high as 98.9%, which means that the potential rate cut has largely been digested by market prices.

· The risk of “sell the fact”: Analyst Ali Martinez stated that the expectation of a 25 bps rate cut has already been reflected in the price, so the rate cut on October 29 may become a “sell the fact” event for the market.

· Historical lessons repeat: This situation is similar to the FOMC meeting in September, when the Fed made its first interest rate cut of the year, and the market quickly lost $60 billion in liquidity in a short period of time.

· Temporary liquidity fluctuations: Although the interest rate cut in September triggered market volatility, overall liquidity subsequently returned. Bitcoin price surged to a new high of over $126,000 at the beginning of this month, reflecting the market's anticipation of the interest rate cut.

Long-term Bullish: Interest Rate Cut Cycle and the $200,000 Target for Bitcoin

Despite the short-term risk of a pullback, from a longer-term perspective, the Fed's interest rate cut cycle is seen as a key macro catalyst driving Bitcoin into a sustained bullish market.

· Bullish market momentum: Standard Chartered analyst Geoff Kendrick emphasized that the Fed's interest rate cuts are one of the key driving factors for Bitcoin to soar to 200,000 USD by the end of the year.

· The impact of loose monetary policy: Historically, loose monetary policy tends to stimulate the demand for risk assets and inflation hedging tools (such as Bitcoin).

Macro Events Driven: The Complex Effects of Sino-U.S. Trade and Government Shutdowns

In addition to Fed policy, the easing of China-U.S. trade relations and the end of the U.S. government shutdown are also key macro variables that could lead to a rebound in the crypto market.

· Hope for easing trade tensions: The escalation of the trade conflict between China and the United States is a major factor contributing to the current bearish sentiment in the market. If the two countries can reach a trade agreement, the market is expected to recover.

· Trump Meets with President Xi: U.S. President Trump has confirmed that he will meet with Chinese President Xi on October 31 at the APEC summit, occurring on the eve of the proposed 100% tariffs on China coming into effect, which may prevent a full-blown trade war.

· Uncertainty of government shutdown: The ongoing government shutdown in the United States, which has lasted for more than three weeks, has created uncertainty in the market. If the Senate passes a funding bill to reopen the government, the crypto market may rebound.

Conclusion

The crypto market is currently entangled in a complex interplay of short-term “sell the fact” risks and long-term macroeconomic benefits. Although the Fed's interest rate cuts may bring about temporary corrections, from a broader perspective, they confirm a shift in global liquidity, providing fundamental support for Standard Chartered's predicted Bitcoin target of $200,000. While investors focus on the Fed meeting results on Tuesday, they should also keep an eye on the China-U.S. trade negotiations and domestic political dynamics in the U.S., as positive changes in these macro factors will jointly lay a more solid foundation for the next round of rebounds in the crypto market.

Disclaimer: This article is for news information and does not constitute any investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investors should make decisions cautiously.