From CZ to Ross: The probability in the prediction market skyrockets, will Trump grant a pardon to FTX founder SBF?

In less than a year since taking office, U.S. President Trump has granted clemency to two well-known encryption figures, Ross Ulbricht, the founder of Silk Road (, and Binance founder Zhao Changpeng )CZ(. This has led to speculation about whether the next person to receive a pardon will be FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried )SBF(. Although the heat in the prediction market is experiencing a big pump, the possibility remains quite slim considering the political reality and public pressure.

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Trump's “encryption pardon” ignites public opinion: the season of crime is coming.

After Trump announced the pardon of Zhao Changpeng, the entire encryption community reacted in polarized ways. Supporters believe this demonstrates Trump's pro-encryption and innovation-oriented attitude; opponents question the involvement of vested interests and judicial unfairness, jokingly calling it “crime season )crime szn( is coming.”

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However, what is more striking is that this action immediately triggered market associations: will FTX founder SBF be the next encrypted figure to be pardoned?

On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of “Will SBF be released before the end of the year” surged from 4% to 16% in just five hours; another probability of “Who will Trump grant clemency to in 2025” also skyrocketed from 6% to 12%.

Although the probability is low, this is enough to show changes in market sentiment and reflects the symbolic effect of Trump's friendly attitude towards encryption.

Spotlight on three encryption criminals: a comparison of their crimes and image

Considering that Trump granted a pardon to Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht just days after taking office, it doesn't seem so surprising that he is now granting a pardon to CZ. Below we will review some crimes committed by encryption figures:

Ross Ulbricht: Founder of the dark web Silk Road, involved in drug trafficking, money laundering, and hacking, sentenced to life imprisonment plus 40 years without the possibility of parole.

Arthur Hayes: Founder of BitMEX, violated the Bank Secrecy Act and failed to implement anti-money laundering and KYC mechanisms, sentenced to 6 months of house arrest and 2 years of probation.

Zhao Changpeng )CZ(: Founder of Binance, sentenced to 4 months in prison for violating the Bank Secrecy Act and failing to implement anti-money laundering measures.

Sam Bankman-Fried )SBF(: Founder of FTX, misappropriated billions of dollars in user funds, involved in telecommunications fraud and money laundering among seven charges, sentenced to 25 years in prison.

Compared to the scale of drug transactions and the indirectly caused deaths resulting from Ross's Silk Road, as well as CZ's imprisonment due to regulatory gaps, it seems that SBF's crimes are of a nature that lies somewhere between CZ and Ross?

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From political calculations, image to scale: Why is SBF hard to forgive?

Political factors: SBF chose the wrong side

The reason Trump was able to consecutively pardon two figures in the encryption world is related to his recent efforts to shape an image of being a blockchain-friendly leader. He is trying to attract young voters and support from the tech industry, thereby consolidating distrust towards Wall Street and Silicon Valley.

However, SBF's political baggage is his biggest obstacle. Before the collapse of FTX, he and his family donated tens of millions of dollars to political groups related to the Democratic Party, making him one of the party's important financial backers.

Trump has always valued loyalty and position; once he shows goodwill to the donors of the opposing camp, it will undoubtedly provoke backlash from his own camp and damage his image.

SBF's attitude is indifferent, and the FTX case is too destructive.

In addition to political factors, SBF's own attitude and image have also made it difficult for him to gain sympathy. Unlike CZ, who cooperated and pleaded guilty while maintaining a low profile, SBF has refused to plead guilty and has fought against the charges during the trial.

At the same time, the scale of his case involves global investors and the bankruptcy of multiple companies, severely impacting Wall Street and the trust of many financial institutions in the encryption market, described by American media as “the most serious financial fraud case in modern times.”

For Trump, pardoning such a symbolic figure may lead the public to question his alignment with notorious financial criminals.

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Navigating the Gains and Losses of Politics: SBF's “Impossible Pardon”

Overall, although Trump's pardon actions seem to show goodwill towards the encryption industry, SBF's political background, the scale of his crimes, and his public image make him the least suitable candidate for a pardon.

Unless Trump is willing to risk political losses and push his pro-encryption stance to the extreme, it still seems unlikely for now.

This article From CZ to Ross: The probability of the prediction market skyrocketing, will Trump pardon FTX founder SB? Originally appeared on Chain News ABMedia.