After making a profit of 4 million dollars, the assets dropped to zero, the mystery of Polymarket "God of Sports Predictions"'s fall.

Written by: Wenser (@wenser 2010), Odaily

Polymarket's prediction market has always been a feast for the few and a gamble for the many. Similar to contract markets, it is also filled with “black swan reversals,” particularly in surprising outcomes in sports.

Today, we are going to talk about the fall of a trader once hailed as the “God of Sports Prediction”—Mayuravarma. This ID, with an Indian caste style of “prediction veteran,” violently raised a capital of $5,000 to $3.8 million in just one month, achieving a profit of up to 760 times, and at one point ranked sixth on the sports profit list. However, what goes up must come down; in just one week, his assets nearly went to zero.

Mayuravarma's experience once again confirms: the so-called “tail-end strategy” on Polymarket is not reliable. Betting events such as sports matches can dramatically reverse at the last moment—you are betting not only on that bit of “certain profit” but also on your entire principal.

Next, let us review the collapse of this prophetic myth together.

Rebirth of the Indian Aristocrat as the “God of Sports Prediction”: A Journey in the Prediction Market Starting from LOL Matches

Mayuravarma started his prediction market journey from the LOL World Championship. According to the information on his homepage, he placed a total of 9 bets during the LOL S15 World Championship, with a final result of 6 wins and 3 losses, giving him a win rate of about 67%. Ultimately, his total loss from LOL betting was around 20,000 USD, while his profit was about 790,000 USD, including:

In the match between AL and T1, bet $150,000 and won $162,500;

In the finals where KT faced T1, a bet of 1.1 million dollars was placed, ultimately winning nearly 600,000 dollars.

Personal Homepage Information

From esports events to American professional sports leagues: Mayuravarma's path to becoming a deity

With the help of the annual world-class esports event, Mayuravarma successfully earned a net profit of approximately $770,000. After briefly betting on 3 rounds of LOL matches, he began his “path to becoming a sports event prediction god,” expanding his betting scope from LOL esports events to renowned American professional leagues and various sports events—CFB (College Football League), NHL (National Hockey League), NBA (National Basketball Association), and NFL (National Football League), among others.

At first, Mayuravarma's bets could be described as “winning every gamble”: in 5 CFB events and 2 NHL games, he achieved a return rate of around 30% to 82% through multiple bets, with a maximum profit of up to $360,000.

Here we can also see Mayuravarma's betting style: he prefers pre-match bets, with wager amounts ranging from thousands to hundreds of thousands of dollars, and he rarely sells during the match. This not only became the reason he was able to gradually roll over small funds into significant results in the early stages, but also laid the groundwork for his later all-in bet, a desperate gamble on an NHL match that ultimately backfired.

Subsequently, after joining the NFL betting, its winning rate suddenly dropped from high to low: in 5 NFL games, its winning rate fell from the previous 100% winning rate in CFB betting to around 40%.

There are also 2 dramatic details worth elaborating on:

First, in an early NHL match where the Wild faced the Rangers, Mayuravarma had bet on the Rangers to win with odds of 57:43, ultimately losing $275,000 of his bet; in a subsequent NHL game, he again bet on the Wild's opposing team, the Devils, due to a higher winning probability, earning a profit of $86,000 with an investment of less than $120,000, illustrating the randomness of the prediction market.

Secondly, in the NHL game on November 22, the Wild faced the Penguins, where they placed a $1 million bet on the Penguins to win. Ultimately, the Wild unexpectedly defeated the Penguins 5-0, resulting in the loss of their $1 million bet.

Subsequently, Mayuravarma began betting on NBA games, correctly predicting the Warriors to defeat the Lakers in 2 matches, making nearly $100,000 in profit from a single game, with a current winning rate of 50%.

The results of the subsequent betting events seemed a bit dull, but the process was smooth for Mayuravarma. He maintained a high winning rate overall in LOL matches, NHL matches, and NBA matches, and from these betting interfaces, we can also see another betting style: he tends to bet on teams with higher pre-match winning chances and stronger capabilities, rather than hoping for an upset. This reflects Mayuravarma's deep attention and understanding of various sports events to some extent, while also providing a certain guarantee for his continued profitability, but it also leaves a certain risk for unexpected outcomes.

After all, just like the saying often heard in football matches and various sports events: “Football is round, anything can happen.” It could be an own goal, a heroic solo effort, or even an unintentional mistake by the referee. In short, there are infinite possibilities in sports events, and every unexpected outcome is a gamble where bettors put their own hard-earned money on the line.

The potential impact of prediction markets: When money becomes a paper number

In the repeated betting events, Mayuravarma's betting amount has been constantly increasing, from an initial $2,000, gradually rising to tens of thousands of dollars, and later, his bets would easily reach $100,000. In just under a month, he transformed from a “newbie in the prediction market” to a “betting whale” in the eyes of players on the Polymarket.

From the following settlement records, Mayuravarma is in the “normal distribution range” during this phase:

In 24 events, the win rate remains at 50%, with successful bets on 12 matches and failed bets on the remaining events;

In 12 failed betting matches, the total investment amounted to approximately 840,000 US dollars, all of which were lost.

In 12 winning betting matches, the total profit is approximately 1.64 million dollars, with a capital profit and loss ratio close to 2, meaning the profit capital is about 1.95 times the loss capital;

The two largest losses both came from NBA games, one losing $102,600 and the other losing $102,000.

The largest profit came from the NHL game between the Bruins and Senators, with an investment of $992,000 and a profit of over $607,000.

Overall, the betting results of Mayuravarma during this phase belong to “lose less and win more.” What is particularly commendable is that he finally learned to cut losses in a timely manner during the NBA game between the Jazz and the Trail Blazers, investing $20,000 and ultimately stopping the loss at just under $300, thus avoiding a total loss.

Mayuravarma Betting Event Result Record (Time from bottom to top is from early to late)

In the subsequent betting, Mayuravarma seemed to have found the trick to predicting the market again, returning to the state of being a “perpetual winner”: out of 12 matches, he only failed in 3 of his bets, with the rest all winning. It was also at this stage that he welcomed his moment of glory:

In the CFB game between Houston and UCF, with a betting fund of $745,000, a profit of $687,200 was ultimately achieved, resulting in a profit rate of 92.25%. This is also the largest profit amount in his account to date, ranking first among 108 betting actions.

But then, perhaps just like the cryptocurrency market where “there must be a pullback after a new high,” Mayuravarma, who had his personal highlight, faced his darkest moment: in the next 10 matches (including the previous one, a total of 11 matches), it was as if his good luck had run out, and he suffered a painful “10 consecutive losses,” accumulating a loss of up to 2.05 million dollars.

During this stage, most of the events where Mayuravarma suffered defeats (with a probability of 8/11) were NHL hockey events, which have an upset rate of about 30%, the highest among the four major professional leagues in the United States, far exceeding events like the NBA, MLB, and NFL. This may have, to some extent, laid the groundwork for its ultimate outcome of “a move off the chessboard, losing everything.”

“11 consecutive losses”

How Gamblers Are Made: When Bettors Are No Longer Satisfied with Small Stakes

Perhaps like fengdubiying, who made millions of dollars betting on LOL esports events relying on skill and luck, after experiencing painful consecutive losses, LOL esports events have also become Mayuravarma's “talisman for good fortune.”

After earning a profit of 600,000 dollars by winning the “T1 LOL S15 World Championship” while in custody, Mayuravarma has once again found his “gambling luck,” and his overall performance has finally shaken off the bad luck, starting to have both wins and losses.

But for him at this moment, he may have long been accustomed to betting “viewing money as numbers”; his betting capital is no longer limited to the previous scale of $100,000, but has instead increased to $300,000 or $500,000 at a time, and he even dares to directly bet $1 million with a profit rate of about 30%.

When a trader who has always been known for his “steady and conservative, only buying strong teams” style changes his previously cautious trading attitude, it is undoubtedly the case that he has been influenced, to some extent, by the complicated market environment and the obsession of “only wanting to win.” The outcome, of course, is also obvious.

Transaction records (from bottom to top in chronological order)

From god in January to falling from grace in a week: Mayuravarma's “Dynasty Road” comes to an end.

On November 14th, with about a month of agile maneuvering, Mayuravarma's personal profit fund scaled up from an initial $7,000 to nearly $3.9 million.

Mayuravarma account profit peak data

Just a week later, Mayuravarma suffered consecutive losses in the NHL and CFB games, bringing his profits close to zero:

In the CFB matchup between Texas State and Southern Miss, a wager of 1.2 million dollars was placed on Southern Miss to win, ultimately resulting in a total loss of the principal.

In the NHL game between the Capitals and the Canadiens, he went ALL IN again, investing 1.2 million dollars to buy into the Canadiens with a higher pre-game winning rate. Ultimately, he did not execute a timely stop-loss, losing nearly the entire 1.2 million dollars. Within a week, his personal profit and loss data had turned from profit to a loss of -3.8 million dollars.

It was also last Saturday, November 22, after experiencing a rollercoaster scenario of “making over 3.8 million and then profit withdrawal,” that Mayuravarma angrily deleted his account on the X platform.

Subsequently, perhaps unwilling to become a laughing stock on Polymarket, Mayuravarma transferred another $1 million into his personal account and again placed bets on various sporting events, but the final outcome was still more losses than wins.

As of the time of writing (November 26), the personal account interface of Mayuravarma on Polymarket shows a total loss of $885,000, with a current position of approximately $278,500. This also means that he has not only given back all the betting profits from before but has also lost hundreds of thousands of dollars of his own capital.

In a certain sense, there is not much difference between the prediction market of sporting events where you bet on the outcome of a team’s victory or defeat, and the contract market where you can either go up or down: in the context of limited choices, the seemingly fewer options of the prediction market may be more brutal than the contract market with multiplied leverage. Many people find it difficult to execute timely stop-losses in contract trading, instead choosing to wait for the dust to settle or hoping for an underdog upset as the event draws to a close. At that point, players lose not only their high hopes but also their hard-earned precious capital.

Under the automatic settlement mechanism at the end of the event, the “winner takes all” in the prediction market appears to be more brutal.

Does ID determine fate? From fengdubiying to “Peacock Dynasty Creator”

Perhaps, prediction markets always carry a touch of mysticism— even the trader's ID seems like a mysterious incantation, quietly influencing their profit and loss trajectory. Just like the ID Mayuravarma from our previous interview with fengdubiying, which itself is a story. (Recommended reading: “Odaily Interview with 'The First Person in the Chinese Region of Polymarket': A 225-fold Return Journey in 25 Days”)

In Sanskrit, the prototype of Mayura is “मयूर” (Mayūra), which means “peacock” and symbolizes divinity and beauty in Indian culture; Varma is commonly found in South Asian surnames, originating from the Sanskrit “वर्मन्” (Varman), meaning “protector” or “armor,” often related to the nobility or warrior class; additionally, the Varma suffix is frequently seen in the surnames of the nobility in Kerala, India, suggesting the duties of a protector in the caste system.

Additionally, as mentioned in the personal homepage introduction of Mayuravarma Polymarket, this ID has a certain connection with Mayurasharma, the founder of the Kadamba dynasty in India, which is symbolized by the peacock and ruled the region that is present-day Karnataka in India. The latter's name signifies “protector of the peacock.” Inscriptions from South India record that his name reflects the combination of Kshatriya (warrior class) and nature worship.

Just like the “Peacock Dynasty” that has vanished in the long river of history, Mayuravarma is merely a “trading footnote” in the thriving development of the prediction market.

It is foreseeable that legendary stars who suddenly become rich like him are still itching to make bets in the Polymarket betting market, while there are also many traders like him who have fallen from grace and seen their assets drop to zero. Like “Brother Ma Ji” Huang Licheng, who is repeatedly fighting in the contract market, Mayuravarma is neither the first nor the last.