CoinShares has released a comprehensive 77-page Outlook report for 2026, forecasting that digital assets will shift from being primarily driven by speculation to being driven by practical utility. The report highlights the rise of hybrid finance, accelerated institutional adoption, clearer regulatory frameworks, marking a pivotal year for mainstreaming the cryptocurrency industry. This article is based on a piece by CoinShares, organized, translated, and authored by TechFlow.
(Background: a16z: Top 17 Cryptocurrency Trends to Watch in 2026)
(Additional context: The Great Token Sale Reshuffle: 10 New Trends for 2026)

Table of Contents

• 1. Core Theme: The Arrival of the Year of Practicality
• 2. Macroeconomic Foundations and Market Outlook
  • Economic Environment: Soft Landing on Thin Ice
  • Gradual Erosion of the US Dollar Reserve Status
• 3. Mainstreaming of Bitcoin in the US
  • Institutional Adoption Still in Early Stages
  • Expectations for 2026
• 4. Risks of Corporate and Miner Holdings
  • Surge in Corporate Holdings
  • Potential Selling Risks
  • Options Market and Volatility Decline
• 5. Divergence in Regulatory Frameworks
  • EU: Clarity with MiCA
  • US: Innovation and Fragmentation
  • Asia: Moving Toward Prudent Regulation
• 6. Rise of Hybrid Finance
  • Infrastructure and Settlement Layers
  • Tokenization of Real-World Assets (RWA)
  • Revenue-Generating On-Chain Applications
• 7. Dominance and Corporate Adoption of Stablecoins
  • Market Concentration
  • Expectations for 2026 Adoption by Enterprises
  • Revenue Impact
• 8. Analysis of Trading Platform Competition Using Porter’s Five Forces Model
• 9. Competition Among Smart Contract Platforms
  • Ethereum: From Sandbox to Institutional Infrastructure
  • Solana: High-Performance Paradigm
  • Other High-Performance Chains
• 10. Transformation of Mining: HPC (High-Performance Computing Centers)
  • Expansion in 2025
  • Transition to HPC
  • Future Mining Models
• 11. Trends in Venture Capital
  • Recovery in 2025
  • Four Major Trends in 2026
• 12. Rise of Prediction Markets
• 13. Key Conclusions

At year-end, various institutions have released their annual reviews and outlook reports.

Following the principle of not reading lengthy texts, we also aim to provide a quick summary and key takeaways for each report.

This report is from CoinShare, a leading European digital asset investment management firm founded in 2014, headquartered in London and Paris, managing over $6 billion in assets.

The 77-page “Outlook 2026: The Year Utility Wins” covers core topics such as macroeconomic fundamentals, Bitcoin mainstreaming, the rise of hybrid finance, competition among smart contract platforms, evolving regulatory landscapes, and deep dives into stablecoins, tokenized real-world assets, prediction markets, mining transformation, and venture capital trends.

Here are our distilled core insights from this report:

1. Core Theme: The Arrival of the Year of Practicality

2025 is a pivotal year for the digital asset industry, with Bitcoin reaching new all-time highs and the industry transitioning from speculation-driven to utility-driven.

2026 is expected to be “The Year Utility Wins,” where digital assets no longer aim to replace traditional finance but instead enhance and modernize existing systems.

The core message of the report is that 2025 marked a decisive shift from speculation to utility in digital assets, and 2026 will be the year this transition accelerates.

Digital assets will not attempt to build parallel financial systems but will instead integrate with and upgrade current traditional finance. Public blockchains, institutional liquidity, regulatory market structures, and real economic use cases are advancing at a pace beyond optimistic expectations.

2. Macroeconomic Foundations and Market Outlook

Economic Environment: Soft Landing on Thin Ice

Growth Expectations: In 2026, the economy may avoid recession but will remain weak and fragile. Inflation is gradually easing but not decisively. Tariff disruptions and supply chain reorganization keep core inflation elevated since the early 1990s.

Federal Reserve Policy: Expected to cautiously cut interest rates, targeting mid-3% levels, but the process will be slow. The Fed remains cautious, recalling the inflation surge of 2022 and unwilling to pivot quickly.

Three scenarios are analyzed:

• Optimistic: Soft landing + productivity surprises, Bitcoin could break $150,000
• Base: Slow expansion, Bitcoin trading range $110,000–$140,000
• Bearish: Recession or stagflation, Bitcoin could fall to $70,000–$100,000

Gradual Erosion of the US Dollar Reserve Status

The share of US dollars in global forex reserves has declined from 70% in 2000 to around 50%. Emerging market central banks are diversifying, increasing holdings of RMB, gold, and other assets. This creates structural tailwinds for Bitcoin as a non-sovereign store of value.

3. Mainstreaming of Bitcoin in the US

In 2025, the US achieved several key breakthroughs:

• Approval and launch of spot ETFs
• Formation of a top-tier ETF options market
• Retirement plan restrictions lifted
• Application of fair value accounting for corporations
• US government designated Bitcoin as strategic reserve

Institutional Adoption Still in Early Stages

While structural barriers have been lifted, actual adoption remains limited by traditional financial processes and intermediaries. Wealth management channels, retirement providers, and corporate compliance teams are gradually adapting.

Expectations for 2026

Private sector progress is anticipated: four major brokerages will open Bitcoin ETF holdings; at least one major 401(k) provider will allow Bitcoin allocations; at least two S&P 500 companies will hold Bitcoin; and at least two leading custodians will offer direct custody services.

( 4. Risks of Corporate and Miner Holdings

)# Surge in Corporate Holdings

Between 2024 and 2025, listed companies’ Bitcoin holdings increased from 266,000 to 1,048,000 BTC, with total value rising from $11.7 billion to $90.7 billion. MicroStrategy accounts for 61%, with the top 10 companies controlling 84%.

Potential Selling Risks

Strategy faces two major risks:

• Inability to fund perpetual debt and cash flow obligations (annual cash flow nearly $680 million)
• Refinance risk (recent bonds mature in September 2028)

If mNAV approaches 1x or refinancing at zero interest rates isn’t possible, forced sales of Bitcoin might trigger a vicious cycle.

Options Market and Volatility Decline

The development of options markets (like IBIT options) has lowered Bitcoin volatility, signaling market maturity. However, declining volatility may reduce demand for convertible bonds, affecting corporate buying power. A volatility turning point occurred in spring 2025.

( 5. Divergence in Regulatory Frameworks

)# EU: Clarity with MiCA

The EU has the most comprehensive legal framework for crypto assets, covering issuance, custody, trading, and stablecoins. However, by 2025, coordination issues emerged, with some national regulators challenging cross-border passports.

US: Innovation and Fragmentation

The US benefits from the deepest capital markets and a mature VC ecosystem, but regulation remains dispersed across SEC, CFTC, Fed, and others. The Stablecoin legislation (GENIUS Act) has passed but is still being implemented.

Asia: Moving Toward Prudent Regulation

Hong Kong, Japan, and others are implementing Basel III crypto capital and liquidity requirements. Singapore maintains a risk-based licensing regime. Asia is forming more coherent regulatory groups focused on risk-based and banking-aligned standards.

6. Rise of Hybrid Finance

Infrastructure and Settlement Layers

Stablecoins: Market size exceeds $300 billion, with Ethereum holding the largest share, Solana growing fastest. The GENIUS Act requires compliant issuers to hold US Treasuries, creating new treasury demand.

Decentralized Exchanges: Monthly trading volume exceeds $600 billion, with Solana processing $40 billion daily.

Tokenization of Real-World Assets (RWA)

Tokenized assets grew from $15 billion in early 2025 to $35 billion. Private credit and US Treasury tokenization are expanding rapidly. Gold tokens surpass $1.3 billion. BlackRock’s BUIDL fund assets have expanded significantly; J.P. Morgan launched JPMD tokenized deposits on Base.

Revenue-Generating On-Chain Applications

Increasing protocols generate hundreds of millions of dollars annually, distributing earnings to token holders. Hyperliquid uses 99% of income for daily token buybacks; Uniswap and Lido have similar mechanisms. This marks a shift from pure speculation to quasi-equity assets.

7. Stability and Corporate Adoption of Stablecoins

Market Concentration

Tether (USDT) accounts for 60% of the stablecoin market, Circle (USDC) for 25%. New entrants like PayPal’s PYUSD face network effects challenges, making it difficult to challenge the duopoly.

Expectations for 2026 Adoption by Enterprises

Payment processors: Visa, Mastercard, Stripe have structural advantages, enabling stablecoin settlements without changing user interfaces.

Banks: JPM Coin by JP Morgan shows potential; a Siemens report indicates 50% FX savings, with settlement times reduced from days to seconds.

E-commerce: Shopify accepts USDC for checkout; markets in Asia and Latin America are piloting stablecoin payments.

Revenue Impact

Stablecoin issuers face interest rate decline risks: if Fed rates drop to 3%, an additional $88.7 billion in stablecoins would need to be issued to maintain current interest income.

8. Competition Among Trading Platforms Using Porter’s Five Forces

Existing competitors: Intense and growing competition, with fee rates dropping to single digits basis points.
Threat of new entrants: Traditional financial institutions like Morgan Stanley E*TRADE and Charles Schwab prepare to enter but rely on partnerships short-term.
Supplier bargaining power: Stablecoin issuers (like Circle) strengthen control via the Arc mainnet. Coinbase’s USDC revenue-sharing agreement is crucial.
Customer bargaining power: Institutional clients account for over 80% of Coinbase’s trading volume, with strong bargaining power; retail users are price-sensitive.
Threat of substitutes: Decentralized exchanges like Hyperliquid, prediction markets like Polymarket, and CME crypto derivatives represent competition.

Industry consolidation is expected to accelerate in 2026, with trading platforms and large banks acquiring clients, licenses, and infrastructure through M&A.

9. Competition Among Smart Contract Platforms

(# Ethereum: From Sandbox to Institutional Infrastructure

Ethereum is expanding via rollup-centric roadmap, with Layer-2 throughput increasing from 200 TPS a year ago to 4,800 TPS. Validators are pushing for higher base layer Gas limits. US spot Ethereum ETF attracted about $13 billion in inflows.

Institutional tokenization efforts, such as BlackRock’s BUIDL fund and JPMD from J.P. Morgan, demonstrate Ethereum’s potential as an institutional platform.

)# Solana: High-Performance Paradigm

Solana stands out with a highly optimized single-plate execution environment, accounting for about 7% of DeFi total TVL. Stablecoin supply exceeds $12 billion (up from $1.8 billion in January 2024). RWA projects are expanding; BlackRock’s BUIDL grew from $25 million in September to $250 million.

Technical upgrades include Firedancer client and DoubleZero validator network. The spot ETF launched on October 28 has attracted $382 million net inflow.

(# Other High-Performance Chains

New Layer-1s like Sui, Aptos, Sei, Monad, and Hyperliquid are competing with architectural differences. Hyperliquid focuses on derivatives trading, accounting for over a third of blockchain revenue. Market fragmentation remains significant; EVM compatibility is a key competitive advantage.

) 10. Mining Transformation: HPC (High-Performance Computing Centers)

Expansion in 2025

Public miners’ hash rate grew by 110 EH/s, mainly from Bitdeer, HIVE Digital, and Iris Energy.

Transition to HPC

Miners announced $65 billion HPC contracts, with Bitcoin mining revenue share expected to fall from 85% in 2025 to below 20% by end of 2026. HPC operations achieve gross margins of 80–90%.

Future Mining Models

Future mining will likely be dominated by: ASIC manufacturers, modular mining, intermittent mining (coexisting with HPC), and sovereign national mining. Long-term, small-scale decentralized operations may make a comeback.

11. Venture Capital Trends

Recovery in 2025

Crypto VC funding reached $18.8 billion, surpassing the total for 2024 ($16.5 billion). Major deals include: Polymarket’s $2 billion strategic investment (ICE), Stripe’s Tempo raising $500 million, and Kalshi’s $300 million funding.

Four Key Trends in 2026

RWA tokenization: Securitize’s SPAC, Agora’s $50 million Series A, and others show growing institutional interest.
AI and crypto integration: AI agents, natural language trading interfaces, and related applications accelerate.
Retail investment platforms: Echo (acquired by Coinbase for $375 million), Legion, and other decentralized angel investing platforms emerge.
Bitcoin infrastructure: Layer-2 and Lightning Network projects gain attention.

12. Rise of Prediction Markets

During the 2024 US elections, Polymarket’s weekly trading volume exceeded $800 million, with post-election activity remaining strong. Its prediction accuracy is validated: events with 60% probability occur about 60% of the time; 80% probability events occur approximately 77–82%.

In October 2025, ICE made a strategic investment of up to $2 billion in Polymarket, indicating mainstream financial recognition. Weekly trading volume could surpass $2 billion in 2026.

13. Key Conclusions

Acceleration of Maturity: Digital assets are shifting from speculation to utility and cash flow focus, increasingly resembling equity assets.

Rise of Hybrid Finance: The integration of public blockchains with traditional finance is no longer hypothetical; it is driven by strong growth in stablecoins, tokenized assets, and on-chain applications.

Enhanced Regulatory Clarity: US GENIUS Act, EU MiCA, and Asian prudential frameworks lay a foundation for institutional adoption.

Gradual Institutional Adoption: While structural barriers are lifted, actual adoption will take several years; 2026 is expected to see incremental private sector progress.

Reshaping Competition: Ethereum remains dominant but faces challenges from high-performance chains like Solana; EVM compatibility remains a key advantage.

Risks and Opportunities Coexist: High concentration of corporate holdings poses sell-off risks, but emerging sectors such as institutional tokenization, stablecoin adoption, and prediction markets offer significant growth potential.

Overall, 2026 will be a critical year for digital assets as they transition from the fringes to the mainstream, from speculation to utility, and from fragmentation to integration.

!Official website TG banner-1116 | Blockchain Trends—Most Influential Blockchain News Media

📍Related Reports📍

a16z predicts four major trends for 2026 revealed first

SEC Chair Paul Atkins calls for “Prioritizing Cryptocurrency in 2026”: The Best Is Yet to Come

Animoca Brands predicts going public on Nasdaq in 2026: Focus on stablecoins, AI, and DePin projects

Tags: Cryptocurrency Trends, Digital Assets, Institutional Adoption, Hybrid Finance, Stablecoins