A certain trader is betting against the market again, optimistic about a 25 basis point rate cut in January next year

BlockBeats News, December 15 – According to PolyBeats monitoring, the probability of no change in the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision at the January meeting is as high as 78%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is only 21%. The market consensus is clear: although inflation has eased, the Federal Reserve usually waits for economic data to stabilize before acting, making an immediate major shift at the beginning of the year unlikely. However, the account thiswaysir’s actions are completely opposite: he is contrarily betting $30,000 on a 25 basis point rate cut in January, and even holds a “lottery position” of 100,000 units betting on a 50 basis point rate cut. This is not his first time betting against market consensus. In mid-November, when the mainstream market sentiment believed that a recession and falling inflation would force the Fed to cut rates by 50 basis points (probability once as high as 80%), thiswaysir contrarily bought nearly $15,000 worth of assets at an average price of 32c, precisely betting on a 25 basis point rate cut in December. This trade ultimately earned him a profit of nearly $25,000. This is also his only historical trade. If thiswaysir’s interpretation of the market is once again correct, his initial principal of $15,000 invested earlier will grow to $150,000 by January through compound interest.