Pi coin breaks below the neckline! Double top pattern formed, countdown to collapse at $0.15

Pi coin price is trading at $0.20, down 26% from the November high and a staggering 93.2% from the February intra-year high of $2.99. On the technical side, the 4-hour chart has formed a bearish double top pattern and broken below the neckline. The 50-day simple moving average has crossed below the 200-day moving average, forming a death cross, indicating that the bears are in control of the market. Trading volume has collapsed from over $2.5 billion in February to just $22 million currently, with whale buying activity continuously decreasing.

The Vicious Cycle of Volume Collapse and Whale Exit

The collapse in Pi coin trading volume is at the core of its price predicament. According to CoinGecko data, the current daily trading volume is about $22 million, a reduction of over 99% compared to the peak of over $2.5 billion in early February. This extreme decline in volume reflects a large-scale withdrawal of market participants.

The decrease in volume and waning whale interest create a vicious cycle. Large holders’ exit reduces market liquidity, making prices more susceptible to volatility. The lack of liquidity further scares off potential buyers, as even moderate sell orders in a low-liquidity market can cause significant price drops.

Behind this cycle is a complete collapse of investor confidence. Pi’s price plummeted 93% from $2.99 to $0.20, destroying early investors’ wealth and deterring potential new buyers. Many holders are now in deep loss, and any rebound could trigger profit-taking or stop-loss selling, further suppressing the price.

Another implication of whale exit is the lack of price support. In a healthy market, large buyers typically build positions near key support levels, providing a bottom for the price. When whales are no longer willing to absorb chips, the price may experience a free fall with no support.

Timing Bomb of 1.3 Billion Tokens Unlock

Token supply dilution is another deadly threat facing Pi. According to Piscan data, nearly 105 million tokens will be unlocked by the end of December, and over 1.22 billion tokens will be unlocked throughout 2026. This large-scale unlocking, in a context of weak demand, acts as continuous selling pressure on the market.

Token Unlock Schedule and Market Impact

December Unlock: Nearly 105 million tokens released, significantly increasing short-term supply relative to current circulation

2026 Unlock: Over 1.22 billion tokens released in phases, with ongoing long-term dilution pressure

Supply-Demand Imbalance: The unlocking pace far exceeds market absorption capacity, making price decline inevitable

The surge in circulating tokens, combined with declining trading volume and market demand, could lead to substantial dilution of token value. If buying interest remains weak, this supply-demand imbalance may continue to push prices lower. Each unlocking event is a potential selling window, especially for early participants waiting to exit.

Worse, the anticipation of unlocking itself will put downward pressure on the price. Rational investors will sell in advance to avoid the post-unlock dump. This preemptive selling causes prices to fall even before actual unlocking, creating a “expectation-reality” double blow.

Pi’s token economic model is highly unfavorable under these conditions. Without clear burn mechanisms or demand-stimulating measures to offset the increased supply from unlocking, the project’s inability to make breakthroughs in ecosystem development and attract real usage will only continue to dilute existing holders’ value.

Double Top and Death Cross: Double Warnings

(Source: Trading View)

On the technical front, Pi is signaling extreme danger. The double top pattern on the 4-hour chart has broken below the neckline, which is considered a highly bearish signal in technical analysis, often indicating further decline. The double top shows that the price attempted twice to break through a resistance level but failed, indicating strong selling pressure above that level.

More seriously, the death cross has appeared. The 50-day simple moving average has crossed below the 200-day simple moving average, a clear sign that the bears are in control. The death cross is one of the most negative signals in technical analysis, often associated with sustained downtrend. Its formation confirms that Pi has shifted from a short-term correction to a medium-term downtrend.

Currently, the $0.192–$0.196 zone is the most critical support area. Over the past months, buyers have repeatedly entered around this key zone, preventing further declines. This area is important because it represents a demand zone that has been tested multiple times and still holds. However, support levels are not eternal; repeated tests will eventually exhaust buying power.

If this support fails, the price could further drop to the $0.15 low, last seen during the October sell-off. As of now, this level is about 25% below the current price. This suggests that investors may face an additional quarter of losses in the short term.

From a risk-reward perspective, the current technical setup does not support buying. The double top, death cross, shrinking volume, and unlocking pressure form a quadruple negative, making any rebound more likely to be a quick escape rather than an entry point.