Under global easing expectations, ETH has entered the "strike zone" of value

Author: Trend Research

Since the market crash on 1011, the entire cryptocurrency market has been dull, with market makers and investors suffering heavy losses. Recovery of funds and sentiment takes time.

But the crypto market is never short of volatility and opportunities, and we remain optimistic about the future.

Because the trend of integrating crypto assets with traditional finance into new business models has not changed; instead, it has rapidly built up a moat during market downturns.

1. Wall Street Consensus Strengthens

On December 3, US SEC Chairman Paul Atkins stated in an exclusive interview with FOX at the New York Stock Exchange: “In the next few years, the entire US financial market may migrate onto the blockchain.”

Atkins said:

2. The core advantage of tokenization is that if assets exist on the blockchain, ownership structures and asset attributes will be highly transparent. Currently, listed companies often do not know exactly who their shareholders are, where they are located, or where their shares are held.
3. Tokenization also aims to achieve “T+0” settlement, replacing the current “T+1” trading cycle. In principle, on-chain delivery payment (DVP)/ receipt payment (RVP) mechanisms can reduce market risk and increase transparency, while the current time gap between clearing, settlement, and fund delivery is one of the sources of systemic risk.
4. Tokenization is considered an inevitable trend in financial services, with mainstream banks and brokerages already moving toward tokenization. The world may even see this within less than 10 years… perhaps in just a few years it will become a reality. We are actively embracing new technologies to ensure the US remains at the forefront in areas like cryptocurrencies.

In fact, Wall Street and Washington have already built a deep capital network around cryptocurrencies, forming a new narrative chain: US political and economic elites → US Treasuries (government bonds) → stablecoins/crypto treasury companies → Ethereum + RWA + L2

From this diagram, you can see the complex connections among the Trump family, traditional bond market makers, the Treasury Department, tech companies, and crypto firms, with the green oval lines forming the main backbone:

(1) Stablecoins (USDT, USDC, WLD-backed USD assets, etc.)

The main reserves are short-term US Treasuries and bank deposits, held through brokers like Cantor.

(2) US Treasuries

Issued and managed by Treasury / Bessent

Used by Palantir, Druckenmiller, Tiger Cubs, etc., for low-risk yield positions

Also the yield assets pursued by stablecoins/treasury companies.

(3) RWA

From US Treasuries, mortgages, accounts receivable to housing finance

Tokenized via Ethereum L1 / L2 protocols.

(4) ETH & ETH L2 Rights

Ethereum is the main chain supporting RWA, stablecoins, DeFi, AI-DeFi

L2 equity/tokens represent rights to future transaction volume and fee cash flows.

This chain expresses:

USD credit → US Treasuries → Stablecoin reserves → Various crypto treasury/RWA protocols → Ultimately settled on ETH / L2.

Compared to other public chains during the 1011 decline, ETH is the only chain that quickly recovered from the dip and rose. Currently, TVL is 12.4 billion USD, accounting for 64.5% of total crypto market.

Second, Ethereum Explores Value Capture

Recently, the Ethereum Fusaka upgrade did not cause much market turbulence, but from the perspective of network structure and economic model evolution, it is a “milestone event.” Fusaka is not just about scaling through EIPs like PeerDAS but also aims to address the issue of insufficient value capture by the L1 mainnet caused by L2 development.

Through EIP-7918, ETH introduces a “dynamic floor price” for blob base fees, binding its lower limit to the L1 execution layer base fee, requiring blobs to pay DA fees at a unit price roughly equal to 1/16 of the L1 base fee; this means rollups can no longer occupy long-term unit prices at near-zero costs.

There have been three upgrades related to “burning” in Ethereum:

(1) London(Single Dimension): Burns only the execution layer, causing structural burning of ETH due to L1 usage.

(2) Dencun (dual dimension + independent blob market): Burns ETH for execution layer + blob; ETH used for writing L2 data into blobs, but during low demand, the blob part is almost zero.

(3) Fusaka (dual dimension + blob + L1 binding): To use L2 (blob), at least a fixed proportion of the L1 base fee must be paid and burned; L2 activity is more stably mapped to ETH burning.

Currently, blob fees on December 11 have reached 569.63 billion times the pre-Fusaka upgrade cost, burning 1,527 ETH per day. Blob fees account for up to 98% of the burning contribution, the highest proportion. As ETH L2 activity further increases, this upgrade is expected to push ETH back into deflation.

Third, Ethereum Technical Strengthening

During the 1011 decline, ETH futures leverage positions were fully cleared, eventually killing off spot leverage positions. Many investors lacking confidence in ETH also reduced their positions, causing many ancient OGs to exit. According to Coinbase data, speculative leverage in the crypto space has dropped to a historic low of 4%.

A significant part of ETH’s past bearishness came from traditional long BTC / short ETH paired trading, which performed very well in previous bear markets. However, this time, an unexpected event occurred. The ETH/BTC ratio has remained sideways since November.

Currently, ETH has about 13 million tokens in exchange reserves, roughly 10% of the total supply, at a historic low. As the long BTC / short ETH pair failed since November, in extreme panic, there may gradually be a “short squeeze” opportunity.

Looking ahead to 2025–2026, friendly signals are being sent regarding future US and China monetary and fiscal policies:

The US will actively cut taxes, lower interest rates, and relax crypto regulations; China will adopt appropriate easing and financial stability measures (suppress volatility).

In the context of relatively loose policies in both countries, and scenarios aimed at suppressing downward asset volatility, during extreme panic when funds and sentiment are not fully recovered, ETH remains a relatively good buy “strike zone.”

(The above content is authorized and reprinted from our partner PANews. Original link | Source: Cycle Trading)

Disclaimer: This article is for market information only. All content and opinions are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. They do not represent the objective views and positions of Block. Investors should make their own decisions and transactions. The author and Block shall not be responsible for any direct or indirect losses resulting from investor transactions._