Gemini predicts that the Bitcoin market will become more mature by 2026, potentially breaking the traditional four-year cycle, with increased political participation, a rise in the prediction market, consolidation of digital asset custody companies, and at least one country converting part of its gold reserves into Bitcoin. This article is based on a piece by Micah Zimmerman, organized, translated, and written by Foresight News. (Previous recap: 2025 asset review: Why will Bitcoin significantly underperform gold and US stocks?) (Background information: VanEck: Bitcoin miners are surrendering on a large scale, indicating that now is the market bottom)

Table of Contents

• Bitcoin breaks the four-year cycle narrative
• For the midterm elections, political forces will embrace cryptocurrency.
• Cryptocurrency-supported prediction markets will rise
• Digital asset custody companies will welcome integration
• Countries may convert part of their gold reserves into Bitcoin

Gemini predicts that the maturity of the Bitcoin market in 2026 may break its traditional four-year cycle. At that time, political participation in the cryptocurrency space will increase, the prediction market will rise, digital asset custodians will undergo consolidation, and at least one country may convert part of its gold reserves into Bitcoin.

Gemini's Director of Institutional Business Patrick Liou has made five key predictions for the crypto market in 2026, after describing 2025 as a “historic” year for digital assets.

According to a statement provided to Bitcoin Magazine, his outlook emphasizes the structural changes in the market, the increase in institutional adoption, and the rising mainstream political acceptance.

Bitcoin breaks the four-year cycle narrative

Liou predicts that Bitcoin may end with negative returns in 2026, which will challenge the traditional four-year cycle that has historically guided investor expectations.

Liou believes that the characteristics of a mature market are the entry of new participants, the emergence of regulated investment instruments, and the deepening of liquidity, which have reduced volatility. He pointed out that the recent price correction has been much smaller than in previous cycles, with Bitcoin dropping about 30% from its peak, whereas historically there have been declines of 75% to 90%.

The structural changes, including the decrease in implied volatility in the options market, indicate that the investor base is expanding, providing more sustainable bullish reasons for the asset.

For the midterm elections, political forces will embrace crypto.

Liou predicts that ahead of the midterm elections in 2026, both major political parties in the United States will intensify their efforts to secure support from the cryptocurrency community. Although the Republican Party will take the lead in courting crypto voters in 2024, the Democratic Party is also expected to follow suit.

Liou emphasized that the currently stagnant “Market Structure Bill” will be the legislative focus, and he predicts that the bill will gain bipartisan support and pass in early 2026. Candidates in key swing states like Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and Michigan are also expected to incorporate cryptocurrency policy into their campaign agendas.

cryptocurrency-supported prediction markets will rise

Liou stated that the “prediction market” which utilizes collective intelligence to forecast outcomes will see a rise. These platforms aim to reward insightful predictive behavior while providing more accurate market information.

Digital asset custody companies will welcome integration.

Liou predicts that after a wave of digital asset custody companies emerges in 2025, the field will undergo consolidation through mergers and acquisitions in 2026.

He pointed out that simply holding cryptocurrencies is no longer enough; digital asset custody companies must demonstrate mature financial management capabilities, including participation in capital markets and optimizing balance sheets, in order to maintain shareholder value.

countries may partially convert their gold reserves into Bitcoin

Liou predicts that at least one country will convert part of its gold reserves into Bitcoin next year. He pointed out that Bitcoin has advantages such as instant transfer, on-chain verifiability, and divisibility, which are attracting the interest of sovereign investors.

The United States, with its strategic digital asset framework, may be one of the candidates, while other countries seeking to reduce their reliance on the dollar or having a higher proportion of gold in GDP may also explore this transformation.