Research institution Sentora Research pointed out that as the largest Bitcoin options in history expire, institutional funds are being reallocated through ETFs, and geopolitical risks may be easing, multiple key factors are simultaneously brewing, paving the way for Bitcoin to embark on a new wave of pump in 2026. (Previous summary: Michael Saylor calls for Bitcoin to reach one million, ten million dollars: waiting for the day when Strategy controls 5% and 7% of the total BTC supply.) (Background information: Arthur Hayes predicts Bitcoin will bottom out in January: The Federal Reserve will effectively implement QE, I have gone All-in with 90% of my assets)

Table of Contents

• The largest options expiration in history, the suppressive factors are about to dissipate.
• The January effect is fermenting, and institutional capital allocation has become a key driving force.
• If the situation in Ukraine cools down, risk assets are expected to benefit overall.
• The bullish conditions will gradually be in place by 2026, but risks still need to be monitored.

The research institution Sentora Research recently released its latest market outlook, pointing out that although Bitcoin (BTC) will still be affected by short-term fluctuations and hover below $90,000 by the end of 2025, several structural factors are simultaneously brewing, laying the groundwork for a “sustained pump” of Bitcoin in 2026.

The institution believes that as the pressure from options eases, institutional funds enter the market on a large scale through ETFs, and geopolitical risks cool down, Bitcoin has the chance to break through 150,000 USD in 2026.

The largest options expiration in history, the suppressive factors are about to dissipate.

Sentora Research points out that on December 26, 2025, Bitcoin will experience the largest options expiration day in history, with a nominal value of approximately 24 billion USD, primarily concentrated on derivative platforms such as Deribit. Due to a large number of open positions concentrated at strike prices above $100,000, the market is affected by the hedging operations of market makers before expiration, causing price volatility to be amplified, which has also become an important reason for the recent weakness in Bitcoin's trend.

However, Sentora Research emphasizes that historically, after the expiration of large options, the market often enters a “pressure release period.” As traders no longer need to sell spot assets for hedging, potential buying pressure for Bitcoin is expected to reemerge. The institution believes this will create favorable conditions for the first quarter of 2026, and Bitcoin has the opportunity to regain the $100,000 level.

The January effect is fermenting, and institutional capital allocation has become a key momentum.

The report also pointed out that the emergence of spot Bitcoin ETFs has completely changed the way institutional investors participate in the cryptocurrency market. In 2025, the inflow of funds into US-listed ETFs reached a historic high, indicating that Bitcoin is gradually being seen as part of mainstream asset allocation.

Sentora Research specifically mentioned the “January Asset Reallocation Effect”: At the beginning of each year, pension funds, endowment funds, and large asset management institutions often reallocate their investment portfolios based on annual investment authorizations and risk budgets. The institution pointed out that if Bitcoin's proportion in investment models increases to 1% to 5%, it will bring considerable buying power.

Looking back to early 2025, Bitcoin attracted over $900 million in capital inflow in a single day. Sentora Research believes that if Bitcoin performs better than the US stock index after the options expiration, the speed of institutional capital allocation may further accelerate, pushing the price to challenge levels above $120,000 by mid-2026.

If the situation in Ukraine cools down, risk assets are expected to benefit comprehensively.

In addition to market structure and funding factors, Sentora Research also pointed out that geopolitical issues could become an important “tailwind” for Bitcoin. The report noted that the long-term Russia-Ukraine conflict has pushed up energy prices and global uncertainty, creating pressure on risk assets. However, recent negotiation signals from various parties indicate that the possibility of breakthrough progress in early 2026 is increasing.

If the situation eases, it will not only help reduce inflation and pressure on oil prices, but may also create a more accommodative space for global monetary policy. Sentora Research believes that once the geopolitical risk premium is adjusted downwards, market funds will be more willing to flow into high-risk, high-growth assets, including cryptocurrencies, and the price of Bitcoin may gain an additional 20% to 30% upside.

In 2026, bullish conditions are gradually in place, but risks still need to be monitored.

Overall, Sentora Research believes that the market reset after the options expiration, the inflow of institutional funds in January, and the improvement of the macro environment will resonate with each other in timing, forming a very favorable “bullish combination” for Bitcoin.

However, it is worth noting that the institution also reminds that potential risks such as delays in geopolitical negotiations and tightening financial market liquidity should still be monitored. However, under the baseline scenario, a Bitcoin price exceeding 150,000 USD in 2026 is not an overly aggressive prediction. Sentora Research summarizes that if the above conditions are successfully met, Bitcoin is expected to usher in a wave of structural, rather than short-term speculative, upward trends.