[TokenPost Column] 2026 Major Prediction: The End of the Four-Year Cycle and the Prelude of the "On-Chain Economy"

There is a long-standing belief in the digital asset market. That is the “Four-Year Cycle Theory”(Cycle Theory), which suggests that prices surge and plummet every four years following the halving cycle. Investors have relied on this mechanical pattern of ups and downs. But it is certain that 2026 will become the inaugural year to break this outdated formula. Bitcoin will hit a new all-time high(ATH), but this will no longer be a simple repetition of cycles. Because this will mark a structural inflection point where the industry shifts from “speculation” to “real utility.”

In 2026, the core change we will witness is “efficiency.” By then, sarcastic questions like “Can blockchain be a livelihood?” will disappear. Because in corporate earnings calls(Earnings Call) or shareholder letters, there will be numerous reports stating “significantly reducing costs and increasing profit margins by introducing on-chain channels.” On the surface, these are sophisticated fintech applications, but behind the scenes, the so-called “DeFi Mullet” model driven by stablecoins and decentralized finance(DeFi) will become the standard in the financial sector.

Stablecoins will be at the center of this efficiency. In autonomous payments among AI agents, cash management in corporate treasury(Treasury), and cross-border B2B payments, stablecoins will become the “default option”(Default) rather than a “choice.” Especially in emerging markets, stablecoin-based USD accounts will become widespread. This is not just a financial product but is also expected to become a major variable shaking up geopolitical dynamics and the foreign exchange(FX) markets.

The maturity of the industry will also be reflected in changes to organizational culture. Loosely operated “governance teams” under the guise of decentralization will disband, replaced by professional IR(Investor Relations) departments. Previously blurred lines between “labs”(Labs) and “foundations”(Foundation) are expected to be integrated to pursue efficiency. Additionally, capable entrepreneurs will no longer split equity(Equity) and tokens(Token) but will adopt a unified reward system to align interests among employees and investors.

Technologies once considered outdated are also expected to make a comeback as “profitable businesses.” Decentralized storage technologies will rise to become actual competitors to AWS or Google Cloud, with a re-evaluation that “Filecoin was just born at the wrong time.” Privacy features will be implemented as opt-in(Opt-in) paid products, and on-chain identity(Identity) technology will become the foundation for creating credit(Credit) markets. The physical infrastructure network in the ‘DePIN’ field will also see a threefold increase in revenue, forming a $150 million market and dominating discussions on on-chain revenue.

At the forefront of finance, the “boundary collapse” will accelerate. The on-chain vaults(Vaults) market will rapidly grow to $150 billion, becoming an essential strategy for asset management firms. Stocks will be tokenized and traded as perpetual contracts(Perps), and conversely, crypto derivatives will enter traditional finance. In this process, US exchanges will engage in fierce competition for survival between existing brokerages like Robinhood and Asian giants entering the US market such as Binance, Bitget, and others(.

2026 will be the year when digital assets prove that they are not just “digital gold” but also the “physical infrastructure” flowing through the veins of the global economy. The era of waiting for a wave every four years is over. It is now time to examine the “depth” of the market itself, which has become the wave.