2026 XRP Price Prediction: Market Structure Bill and ETF Boost, Can It Return to $3.66?

XRP plummeted from a historic high of $3.66 in 2025 to $0.7773, a 7.71% decline for the year. However, in 2026, fundamentals improve with progress on the Senate Market Structure Bill, XRP spot ETF attracting $1.07 billion in its first month, and Ripple obtaining a US banking license—three major catalysts supporting price forecasts: short-term target $2.5, mid-term returning to $3.66.

Key Turning Points Revealed by 2025’s Volatility

(Source: Trading View)

In 2025, XRP surged 76% from $2.0809 on January 1 to a historic high of $3.66 on July 18, creating one of the most dramatic rallies in cryptocurrency history. This surge was driven by five major catalysts: Trump’s election and his pro-cryptocurrency stance, SEC Chair Gary Gensler’s resignation, US government considering including XRP in strategic reserves, SEC’s ruling in the Ripple lawsuit, and the House passing the Market Structure Bill.

However, market momentum reversed in Q3. Escalating US-China trade tensions, government shutdown delaying legislation, SEC postponing XRP spot ETF issuance, Fed’s hawkish outlook, and MSCI’s consultation document on Digital Asset Custody Companies (DAT) collectively caused XRP to crash to a low of $0.7773 in October. By year-end, XRP broke below the $2 psychological level, entering a bearish technical trend.

This volatility exposes XRP’s extreme sensitivity to regulatory developments. On July 17, the day the House passed the Market Structure Bill, XRP surged 14.69%. Since the government shutdown delayed Senate voting, XRP has fallen 33%. These price movements highlight its potential upside and support bullish expectations for 2026. The key point is that previous adverse factors have turned favorable, laying the groundwork for a bullish market in 2026.

Market Structure Bill: The Biggest Catalyst for 2026

Progress on the Senate Market Structure Bill is the core variable in XRP’s 2026 price forecast. White House crypto and AI chief David Sacks confirmed before the holidays that the Clarity Bill review will take place in January, stating “We are closer than ever to passing the milestone crypto Market Structure Bill called for by President Trump.”

Passing this bill would legalize XRP, attracting a broader investor base and boosting institutional demand. Given Ripple’s prolonged legal dispute with the SEC, classifying XRP as a non-security has increased its utility. The Market Structure Bill will further solidify this status, alleviating legal concerns for institutional investors. Historical data shows that when the House passed the bill on July 17, XRP surged 14.69% in a single day; if the Senate approves and President Trump signs it into law, the rally could be even more explosive.

Three Major Legislative Impact Pathways

Unlocking Institutional Demand: Once the Market Structure Bill clearly defines XRP as a non-security, pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, and traditional asset managers will be able to legally hold XRP. These institutions manage assets worth trillions of dollars, and even a 0.1% allocation to XRP could result in significant capital inflows.

Accelerating ETF Launches: After the bill’s passage, SEC approval for XRP spot ETFs will accelerate significantly. Currently, 125 crypto-related ETFs are awaiting SEC approval, with XRP expected to be a major beneficiary. Bitwise Invest predicts over 100 crypto ETFs will launch in 2026, with the number of XRP spot ETFs potentially doubling.

Bank Adoption Acceleration: The Market Structure Bill, combined with Ripple’s US banking license, will enable more US banks to adopt XRPL for cross-border payments and FX bridging. OCC’s conditional approval of Ripple’s banking license last December suggests institutions using XRPL may shift to XRP for liquidity operations, directly boosting XRP’s utility and demand.

XRP Spot ETF First-Month Attracts $1.07 Billion—Explosive Potential

(Source: SoSoValue)

In its first month, XRP spot ETF saw a net inflow of $1.07 billion from five issuers, indicating strong market demand. Canary XRP ETF (XRPC), the first pure spot ETF in the US, accumulated $335.87 million in net inflows as a first-mover advantage. Grayscale XRP ETF (GXRP) followed closely, with total net inflows of $235.03 million.

SEC’s October approval of the General Listing Standard (GLS) removed the usual 240-day review process for spot ETFs, allowing issuers to list after a two-day waiting period. The revised process permits commodity trust shares to be listed and traded under a standardized framework, likely attracting more ETF issuers into the XRP spot ETF market. WisdomTree’s XRP ETF is expected to launch early next year, further expanding the market.

If capital continues to flow strongly in the first half of 2026, it will reinforce the bullish outlook for XRP’s price in 2026. Historical experience shows that Bitcoin spot ETFs initially attracted billions of dollars in weekly net inflows, driving Bitcoin to new all-time highs. The $1.07 billion first-month inflow for XRP spot ETFs indicates that institutional demand for XRP is awakening, and this demand will grow exponentially as regulations clarify.

Technical and Trading Strategies: $2 as a Critical Level

(Source: Trading View)

On the technical side, XRP declined 10.89% in December, continuing a three-month downtrend, with current prices well below the 50-day and 200-day EMAs. The EMAs show a bearish bias, but fundamental factors are increasingly outweighing technical signals. Key technical levels include: support at $1.75 and $1.50, resistance at the 50-day EMA of $2.1430, 200-day EMA of $2.4147, and upper resistance levels at $2.5, $3.0, and $3.66.

From the daily chart, breaking the $2 psychological level will activate the 50-day EMA. If prices continue above the 50-day EMA, a retest of the 200-day EMA and resistance at $2.5 is likely. A breakout above the EMA lines would signal a trend reversal to bullish, supporting mid-term prospects and a long-term target of $5. Conversely, if prices are blocked at $2.0 and continue to fall below the downtrend line to $1.75, the bullish outlook will weaken.

For traders, the current 2026 XRP strategy should focus on the $2 key level. Aggressive traders can scale into positions in the $1.75–$1.85 range with stops below $1.50, targeting $2.5 and $3.66. Conservative investors should wait for a clear breakout above $2 and stabilization above the 50-day EMA before entering. Medium- and long-term investors can adopt dollar-cost averaging, increasing positions before and after the passage of the Market Structure Bill.