Meme coins start 2026 with a surge: Is the market risk appetite returning, and are signs of a full recovery already emerging?

At the start of 2026, the cryptocurrency market ushered in a wave of strong performance, with the Meme coin sector, represented by Pepe and Bonk, performing particularly remarkably. The sector generally achieved double-digit gains within the week, with total market capitalization soaring over 23% in just one week. This rally coincided with Bitcoin’s steady breakthrough of the key resistance level at $90,000 and an improved macro market outlook, which some analysts see as an early signal of risk appetite returning. However, overall market sentiment remains divided; the Fear & Greed Index has not fully exited the “Fear” zone, serving as a reminder for investors to stay cautious amid optimism.

Meme Coins Lead the Market at the Start of the Year, Outperforming the Mainstream

While the market still reflects on the turbulence of 2025, a group of crypto assets centered around community culture and internet memes has already sounded the call for a comeback. According to CoinMarketCap data, the total market cap of Meme coins broke through $47.7 billion on the first Monday of 2026, representing a surge of over 23% from the low point of $38 billion on December 29, 2025, within just one week. Even more striking is the trading volume, which skyrocketed from $2.17 billion to $8.7 billion, a 300% increase, indicating massive capital inflows into what is considered one of the most speculative corners of the market.

Leading projects have shown impressive gains. Pepe (PEPE) is undoubtedly the brightest star this week, with its price soaring over 70%, becoming the absolute engine of the sector’s rally. Following closely is Bonk (BONK), based on the Solana ecosystem, with nearly 50% weekly gains. Established Meme coins like Dogecoin (DOGE) and Shiba Inu (SHIB) also recorded significant increases of over 20% and 19.9%, respectively. This widespread bloom contrasts sharply with the bleak end-of-2025 low of $35 billion in Meme coin market cap.

Key Weekly Data for Major Meme Coins

Pepe (PEPE): +70%, leading the sector

Bonk (BONK): +48%, representing the Solana ecosystem

Dogecoin (DOGE): +20%, the largest Meme coin by market cap

Shiba Inu (SHIB): +19.9%, with the most diverse ecosystem development

Sector Total Market Cap: from $38 billion to $47.7 billion, +23%

Sector Total Trading Volume: from $2.17 billion to $8.7 billion, +300%

This surge is not an isolated event. Market analysis platform Santiment pointed out that the Meme coin rebound “began a few days after Christmas, precisely when retail traders’ fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) sentiment peaked.” This once again confirms a classic rule in crypto markets: when most people feel hopeless and exit, a turning point is often brewing. The market’s pendulum always swings opposite to the general expectation, and savvy capital has already positioned itself in assets that have been “misjudged.”

Dual Drivers Behind the Rally: Bitcoin Stabilization and Macro Optimism

The rally of Meme coins relies on a solid foundation, with Bitcoin playing a pivotal role. A notable feature of this market movement is the simultaneous explosion of high-risk assets and the steady upward trend of Bitcoin. Bitcoin closed higher for four consecutive trading days at the start of the year, successfully breaking and stabilizing above the psychological threshold of $90,000 for the first time after multiple failed attempts at the end of 2025. As of press time, Bitcoin trades around $92,335, up about 5% for the week.

More importantly, this rise is supported by robust derivatives market data. According to CryptoQuant, the total open interest in Bitcoin futures across the entire market has surged to $31.44 billion, reaching a six-week high. An increase in open interest typically indicates new capital entering or existing positions expanding, suggesting that this rally is not driven solely by spot buying but also by broader market participation, including institutions (. The stability of Bitcoin provides a “ballast” effect for the entire crypto market, encouraging investors to allocate funds into more volatile altcoins and Meme coins.

On the macro front, improved expectations are also a major driver. Derek Lim, head of research at crypto market maker Caladan, pointed out that ongoing rate cuts, slowing inflation, and new strategic resource channels such as the US acquiring Venezuelan oil may be collectively creating a favorable environment for risk assets. “When these factors are considered together, it may signal that market sentiment in 2026 will shift toward greater risk appetite,” Lim told media. “Perhaps the current price action is trying to digest all these expectations.”

However, as a diligent researcher, Lim also issued a necessary warning. He cautioned that the rise of Meme coins should not be simply interpreted as a clear signal of a market-wide shift to risk-on. “The rally in Meme coins can be relatively easily manufactured by various factors, such as low liquidity and extremely low circulating supply,” he explained. “Therefore, it does not necessarily represent a larger change in market momentum or attitude.” This highlights the inherent characteristics of Meme coin markets: high volatility, susceptibility to manipulation, and sometimes acting as amplifiers of market sentiment, but not necessarily reliable leading indicators.

Market Sentiment: A Tale of Ice and Fire — Optimism and Caution Coexist

The current crypto market sentiment presents an intriguing split: “half is the sea, half is fire.” On one hand, data from prediction markets show that short-term investor optimism is rapidly rising. For example, on the prediction platform Myriad, users currently estimate an 82% probability that Bitcoin will first break $100,000 before dropping to $69,000, up from only 62% earlier this year. This rapid shift in expectations reflects traders’ strong confidence in further upside.

This optimism is not unfounded; it is partly driven by a broad recovery in the altcoin market. Besides Meme coins, other major altcoins like Hyperliquid, Hedera, Aster, and XRP have all gained about 5% in the past 24 hours. This indicates that capital inflows are somewhat broad-based, not limited to the most speculative sectors, and overall market activity is increasing.

On the other hand, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which gauges overall market psychology, has painted a more complex picture. It just shifted from “Fear” to “Neutral” on Sunday, recording a score of 40, the first time since October last year. While this is a positive development, the “Neutral” state is far from “Greed” or “Extreme Greed.” This suggests that despite the hot spots like Meme coins, the overall market psyche from the 2025 downturn has not fully healed, and many investors may still be cautious or hesitant.

This divergence in sentiment offers important decision-making cues. It indicates that the market may be in a critical transition phase: early risk-takers have already entered and driven the first rebound, while broader market participants are waiting for clearer trend signals or fundamental improvements. Historical experience shows that when the Fear & Greed Index shifts from extreme fear to neutral, it often marks the early stage of a bottoming and recovery process, with subsequent trends depending on more incremental capital inflows and positive catalysts.

Can the Meme Coin Boom Ignite a Altcoin Season?

With the Meme coin sector erupting, a key question is whether this signals the start of a new “Altcoin Season.” This term typically refers to a period when Bitcoin’s dominance wanes, and capital rotates heavily into other cryptocurrencies, leading to altcoins outperforming Bitcoin significantly. A trader on X platform named Wealthhmanger speculates that as traders diversify into other sectors, altcoins may soon rally as well. “When we see Meme coins showing such strength, other altcoins usually follow. Historically, Solana )SOL( has been one of the biggest beneficiaries of Meme coin momentum.”

This view is backed by solid historical precedent. During the previous crypto frenzy, Solana was a core ecosystem for Meme coin creation and trading, with network activity and its native token SOL closely linked to Meme coin trends. Thanks to its high throughput and low transaction costs, Solana became an ideal platform for issuing and trading Meme coins, attracting significant attention and capital inflows. If this Meme coin hot streak continues and more developers return to build on Solana, SOL could replicate its past performance and become a primary beneficiary of Meme coin spillover funds.

So, what is Solana? Solana is a high-performance layer-one blockchain known for its high transaction speed )theoretically processing tens of thousands of transactions per second( and extremely low fees. Its core innovation lies in the combination of Proof of History (PoH) consensus and Proof of Stake (PoS), designed to solve the blockchain “impossible triangle”—achieving high scalability without significantly sacrificing decentralization or security. SOL is its native token, used for paying transaction fees, staking to secure the network, and governance and interaction within the ecosystem.

However, investors should also note that the overall market still lags behind the Meme coin sector. Despite Meme coins surging 23% in a week, the global crypto market cap only increased from $2.97 trillion to $3.13 trillion, a modest 5% rise. Ethereum rose 7.3% to around $3,168, outperforming Bitcoin but still lagging behind top Meme coins. This disparity indicates that capital remains highly concentrated in specific sectors, and a broad sector rotation has yet to occur.

Therefore, a recommended approach for investors is to adopt a “core-satellite” strategy: hold Bitcoin and Ethereum as core positions to capture overall beta and safety; meanwhile, allocate small, cautious positions to assets like Solana, which are closely linked to Meme coin ecosystems and have relatively solid fundamentals, aiming for potential alpha gains. However, it is crucial to recognize that Meme coins are highly volatile, and their movements can be unpredictable. A sudden surge should not be taken as a sign that the market has entered unconditional euphoria; maintaining risk control remains the top priority. A full market recovery still depends on broader economic signals and sustained capital inflows to confirm the trend.