2026 Start of the Year Observation: Geopolitical Changes and Rate Cut Expectations Intertwined, Bitcoin Cautiously Moves Above $90,000

Article by: Yangz, Techub News

The cryptocurrency market started 2026 with a mild upward trend. Bitcoin rose above $94,000 on January 5th, an approximately 8% increase from the end of last year’s $87,000. Although it has since retreated to around $93,000, the overall upward momentum at the start of the year undoubtedly injects a positive signal into the market. Behind this steady beginning, multiple undercurrents are flowing, including macro policies, geopolitical tensions, and regulatory developments.

Macro Background: Intertwined Expectations of Rate Cuts and Geopolitics

Behind the calm rally at the start of the year, two major narrative threads are unfolding, influencing the direction of the crypto market in early 2026.

First is the U.S. Federal Reserve’s monetary policy in 2026 and the selection of its next chair. Goldman Sachs recently pointed out in a research report that the cooling labor market may force the Fed to consider more aggressive rate cuts beyond current market expectations. This forward-looking expectation acts as a strong boost for global risk assets. For Bitcoin, often regarded as “digital gold,” and broader crypto assets, improved liquidity prospects and the potential weakening of the dollar form a classic macro-positive framework. However, the unresolved question of the Fed chair’s successor casts a shadow over future monetary policy paths. The policy inclination of the next leader will directly determine the pace and depth of this easing cycle, which in turn will influence the crypto market’s funding environment and regulatory climate.

Second is the geopolitical event of the U.S. detaining Venezuelan President Maduro. Although, from a traditional economic scale, Venezuela’s influence is minimal (Bloomberg columnist John Authers pointed out that Venezuela accounts for only 0.1% of global GDP, with oil production representing just 1% of global supply), its covert connections to the crypto world are sparking endless speculation. According to multiple intelligence sources cited by Whale Hunting, the Venezuelan government may have secretly built a Bitcoin treasury worth $60 billion using accumulated gold reserves, comparable to holdings of industry giants like Strategy. More practically, to bypass financial sanctions, 80% of the country’s oil export revenue has shifted to settlements in USDT.

Furthermore, as analyzed by Arthur Hayes and others, Trump’s intervention in Venezuela is also driven by political considerations. For the Trump administration, approaching mid-term elections made “economic performance” an absolute priority. Stimulating asset prices and suppressing inflation through possible monetary easing and energy interventions (such as controlling Venezuelan oil to stabilize prices) is a clear political-economic strategy. The crypto market sits at this intersection: Bitcoin is both a “risk asset” that benefits from liquidity abundance and a “non-sovereign asset” that gains value amid geopolitical confrontation.

Regulatory Evolution: The Arrival of Key Legal Milestones

While macro narratives provide directional expectations for the market, the global crypto regulatory framework will enter a critical shaping phase in 2026.

Currently, the core battleground for U.S. crypto regulation is the “CLARITY Act.” The bill has entered a crucial stage of congressional review, with a key “bill revision review” process scheduled to begin on January 15th. If ultimately passed, it will clarify classification standards for crypto assets and delineate regulatory responsibilities between the SEC and CFTC, providing a stable and predictable legal framework for the industry. Additionally, the bill will enshrine the current relatively friendly regulatory stance into law, resisting potential policy reversals from future administrations.

However, positive signals in policy-making do not fully eliminate uncertainties at the enforcement level. A recent leak from Bitcoin Magazine has raised concerns about policy consistency. It reports that the U.S. Department of Justice is accused of illegally selling 57.55 Bitcoin seized from the Samourai case, conflicting with an executive order signed by Trump in March 2025 to establish a “Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.” Cynthia Lummis, a pro-crypto lawmaker, publicly questioned this: “Why is the U.S. government still selling Bitcoin? Trump explicitly instructed that these assets be retained as part of the Bitcoin strategic reserve. Other countries are accumulating Bitcoin, yet we are wasting these strategic assets, which is deeply concerning.”

Meanwhile, the EU’s “Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation” (MiCA) framework’s digital asset tax transparency law officially took effect on January 1st. This law extends the EU’s traditional financial tax cooperation framework into the crypto asset sector, requiring exchanges, custodians, and other service providers to collect user identity information, transaction records, and report data automatically to tax authorities of member states.

Unlike the U.S. and Europe, China continues to reinforce a clear regulatory stance. The latest People’s Bank of China working meeting emphasized “strengthening virtual currency regulation and continuing to crack down on related illegal activities,” while also “steadily developing digital yuan.” Earlier this year, 13 departments jointly stated that they would maintain high-pressure efforts against virtual currency trading and speculation, noting that “stablecoins are a form of virtual currency and currently cannot effectively meet requirements for customer identity verification and anti-money laundering.”

Institutional Movements: Continued Embrace by Financial Giants

As the global crypto regulatory landscape enters a critical shaping phase, recent actions by Wall Street financial giants show a deepening embrace of cryptocurrencies.

In October last year, MSCI proposed removing digital asset reserve companies from its Global Investable Market Index, sparking strong opposition from firms like Strategy. Yesterday, this issue took a key turn. MSCI announced that it would temporarily suspend this exclusion plan in its February 2026 index review. It’s important to note that this exemption is not permanent. MSCI clarified that it will initiate a broader consultation process aimed at systematically reassessing how all “non-operating companies” (those holding non-operational assets like digital assets as core holdings) are treated in the index.

Meanwhile, Paul Griggs, head of PwC US, recently stated in an interview that the firm is increasing its investments in cryptocurrencies and related services. This strategic shift began last year, driven by the appointment of pro-crypto regulators and the U.S. Congress’s push for multiple digital asset legislations. Additionally, Morgan Stanley has submitted filings to the SEC planning to launch ETFs linked to Bitcoin and Solana prices.

Conclusion

The performance of the crypto market at the start of 2026 sets a cautious optimistic tone for the year. Bitcoin’s oscillation above $90,000 reflects complex market sentiment influenced by macro uncertainties, regulatory progress, and increasing institutional acceptance.

Perhaps this year will not see a repeat of past narratives driven by retail enthusiasm leading to a full-blown surge, but a healthier, more resilient market foundation is quietly being built in this seemingly mild beginning.