Polymarket bets on Iran political risk: The probability of Khamenei stepping down within the year rises to 56%

Decentralized Prediction Market Polymarket has recently assigned a rare high-risk price to the political situation in Iran. The latest data shows that traders now estimate a 56% probability of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei stepping down before the end of this year, up about 21 percentage points in just a few days.

The shift in market sentiment is closely related to external shocks and internal turmoil. Last week, the U.S. military’s arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro caused a strong震动 in the Middle East. Iran and Venezuela have long been allies, cooperating closely in energy and sanctions response. This incident is seen as a real-life “regime risk demonstration,” making Tehran highly alert.

Domestically, the sharp devaluation of the Iranian currency has triggered protests that continue to spread. The U.S.-based HRANA reports that demonstrations have spread to 27 out of 31 provinces and 88 cities, resulting in multiple deaths and numerous arrests. Iranian authorities blame external forces for inciting the protests and have increased security deployments, further fueling market expectations of escalation.

External pressure is also driving up risk premiums. Recently, Trump has repeatedly spoken out on the Iran situation, warning that suppressing protests could trigger a strong response. Benjamin Netanyahu’s public support for Iranian protesters is also interpreted as a signal that the Iranian leadership feels increasingly “encircled.”

From Polymarket’s distribution, traders are not betting on a rapid collapse of Iran in the short term. Related contracts show gradually increasing probabilities at different time points, reflecting a market leaning toward “long-term instability” rather than immediate change. Additionally, another contract indicates about a 51% chance of President Masoud Peshtehian stepping down within the year, but more than 60% of traders still bet on “status quo.”

Analysts point out that Iran is not Venezuela. The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has extensive regional networks and military capabilities in the Middle East, and Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has warned that any external action will trigger retaliation. Overall, the 56% probability given by Polymarket is more like a coin toss, symbolizing that Iran’s political situation is at a highly uncertain critical point.