The probability of Bitcoin falling below $65,000 exceeds 70%. What is the market worried about?

The weekend sell-off caused Bitcoin’s price to briefly dip below the psychological threshold of $75,000, and market sentiment seems to have shifted overnight. On the prediction platform Polymarket, a compelling wager is heating up: betting on the probability that Bitcoin will fall below $65,000 in 2026 has surged to 72%, attracting nearly one million dollars in bets. This is not just a numbers game; it’s a mirror reflecting the turbulent currents deep within the crypto market—from the exuberance after Trump’s election victory to the current widespread anxiety over “deep dips,” with the rapidity of change astonishing.

What’s more, some veteran players are alerting that this decline has put the company with the largest Bitcoin holdings, Strategy, to its first test since late 2023, where its average cost basis is being challenged. It’s like a marathon leader suddenly finding the track beneath them turning slippery.

Why has market sentiment suddenly turned sour? On the surface, it appears to be a price correction. But upon closer inspection, several forces are pulling together like a rope, jointly tugging at the market.

First, there are technical “breakdown” signals. According to observations from some on-chain analysis firms, Bitcoin has been in a “bear market” cycle since falling below its 365-day moving average in November 2025. This long-term moving average is often seen as the “bull-bear dividing line”; once broken, it typically triggers systematic de-risking among technical investors. I remember during the 2018 bear market, similar long-cycle moving average breaches led to months of downward drift and bottoming processes, with early bottom-fishing being akin to “catching a flying knife.”

Second, the “water tap” of macro liquidity seems to be tightening. Some macro analysts point out that the current correction is more due to liquidity tightening in the overall U.S. financial environment rather than any fundamental issues with cryptocurrencies themselves. Changes in the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, the draining effect of Treasury issuance—these seemingly distant macro factors are actually transmitted through risk asset pricing logic directly to Bitcoin’s price. When the tide (liquidity) recedes, the most volatile assets are the first to reveal their swimwear.

Lastly, an interesting perspective comes from industry insiders. Mati Greenspan, CEO of Quantum Economics, reminds us that perhaps we’ve been focusing on the wrong point all along. He wrote on social media that Bitcoin’s core design goal is to be a currency independent of the traditional banking system; price appreciation is merely a “side effect,” not its purpose. This viewpoint is like a cold shower, prompting us to think: when the market only focuses on price ups and downs, has it already strayed from its original vision?

Is the prediction market’s “crystal ball” accurate? The high-probability bets on Polymarket undoubtedly amplify market pessimism. Besides the bet that Bitcoin will fall below $65,000, the probability of it dropping to $55,000 has reached 61%. Meanwhile, there’s still a 54% chance that it will rebound to $100,000 before the end of the year. This tug-of-war between bulls and bears precisely illustrates the market’s significant disagreement.

But here’s a key question: does the “probability” in prediction markets equal the “future fact”? Not necessarily. It more reflects the collective sentiment of current market participants voting with real money. This sentiment is highly contagious, capable of self-fulfillment, but can also reverse instantly due to a sudden positive development. Just like during the March 2020 crash, no one could have predicted the epic bull run that followed. Prediction markets are an excellent window into market sentiment but not a navigation chart for investing.

Additionally, Polymarket itself faces some regulatory challenges, such as restrictions in Nevada due to licensing issues. This reminds us that this “sentiment barometer” is also in a dynamic environment.

Institutional opinions clash, what should retail investors listen to? Faced with market confusion, the perspectives of large institutions are also showing interesting “clashes.”

On one hand, bearish sentiment is widespread among prediction markets and some analysts. On the other hand, just a few months ago, several top institutions issued quite optimistic forecasts. For example, Grayscale Investments predicted Bitcoin could break its all-time high of $126,000 in the first half of 2026, citing ongoing institutional adoption and gradually clearer regulation. Analysts from Standard Chartered and Bernstein also set a target of $150,000 in 2026, though they later revised downward due to slowing ETF fund inflows.

Such contradictions are not uncommon. The long-term logic of institutions (like Bitcoin’s scarcity and the narrative of digital gold) often operates in a different language system from short-term market fluctuations (liquidity, sentiment, technical signals). For investors, the key is to discern which voice you’re hearing: is it a multi-year trend judgment or a warning about risks in the coming quarters?

What should investors focus on now? Market noise is abundant, but I believe we can concentrate on a few more substantive points rather than being led by simple ups and downs.

• Strategy’s “cost basis” defense: As a market “banner,” the relationship between its stock price and its cost basis warrants attention. If Bitcoin remains below its average cost, will it shake its long-term holding strategy or influence other listed companies’ follow-through? This is an important indicator.
• Real macro liquidity data: Instead of guessing, focus on actual data like the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet and the U.S. Treasury General Account (TGA) balance. These are the “driving forces” behind all risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
• On-chain activity “quality” and “quantity”: During price declines, are long-term holders panic-selling, or are they over-accumulating? On-chain data can tell us whether the chips are dispersed or concentrated. For example, changes in the supply of long-term holders, exchange inflows and outflows, and other indicators often provide more foresight than price charts.
• Does your own investment logic still hold? This is the most important point. Why did you invest in Bitcoin in the first place? Because you believe in its potential as a long-term store of value, or just for short-term speculation? If your long-term reasoning remains unchanged (such as global currency oversupply, sovereign credit risks), then market volatility becomes a test of your conviction and an opportunity for better entry points. If you’re just riding the hype, then any wind or wave can make you restless.

The market always swings between excessive optimism and excessive pessimism. When 72% of people on Polymarket bet on a decline, perhaps it’s time for us to stay calm and think contrarily. After all, in the crypto world, consensus is often very expensive, and true opportunities often arise from the breakdown of consensus. Of course, any judgment should be combined with your own situation. The market always contains uncertainties, and good position management and risk control are essential lessons for navigating any cycle.