In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, the prediction market Polymarket has a trading volume of up to $3.68 billion (114.8 billion TWD) on presidential forecasts. Polymarket has also gained popularity for accurately predicting outcomes, becoming a major success story. This year, it even partnered as the official prediction market for the Golden Globe Awards, with a final accuracy rate of 93%.
Recently, Polymarket also listed a prediction for the “2026 Taiwan Local Elections: Party Winners,” with up to 88% of funds betting on the Kuomintang (KMT) to win, and 12% believing the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) will prevail. However, note that the current trading volume is less than $30,000.
(Polymarket Golden Globe predictions achieved a 93% accuracy, precisely predicting 26 award results)
According to Article 88-1 of the “Presidential and Vice Presidential Election and Recall Law,” any betting on election results in public places or accessible to the public may face up to six months imprisonment or fines. This also applies to betting conducted via telecommunications, the internet, and similar means. Additionally, providing venues or gathering for betting may result in up to five years imprisonment and fines. News outlets remind that Polymarket is not open to Taiwanese users and urge readers to abide by the law.
Polymarket Taiwan Local Election Prediction: KMT’s Win Rate Reaches 88%
The recent surge in prediction markets began with Polymarket’s accurate predictions of the U.S. presidential election, making election betting a hot topic on the platform. Among these, Taiwan’s elections have also attracted attention. Currently, on Polymarket, the “2026 Taiwan Local Elections: Party Winners” prediction shows 88% of funds betting on the KMT to win, and 12% on the DPP. However, the current trading volume remains under $30,000, so it’s not yet representative.
According to settlement rules, the outcome will be determined by which party’s official candidate wins the most seats in the county and city mayoral elections held on November 28, 2026. This means the final result is based on the number of newly elected county and city mayors, not the total vote count. Candidates must be officially nominated by their political party and registered as party members to be considered official candidates. Independent candidates’ seats are not counted toward any party. If multiple parties have the same number of mayoral wins, the winner will be determined by the alphabetical order of the party’s English name.
For example: Rumors suggest that the DPP will yield the current Hualien County Council Speaker Zhang Jun in Hualien. If Zhang Jun is elected, it will not be counted as a DPP seat.
(What is a prediction market? Polymarket beginner’s guide: betting methods, settlement process, and risk analysis)
News outlets remind that Polymarket is not open to Taiwanese users. The Taiwan High Prosecutors Office has also explicitly stated that betting on elections is illegal, urging readers to abide by the law.
According to Article 88-1 of the “Presidential and Vice Presidential Election and Recall Law,” any betting on election results in public or accessible places may face up to six months imprisonment or fines. This applies to betting via telecommunications, the internet, and similar means. Providing venues or gathering for betting may result in up to five years imprisonment and fines.
Betting on Taiwan elections may violate the Election and Recall Law, with a maximum penalty of 6 months in prison
During Taiwan’s 2023 presidential election, police took action against bettors in Taiwan. Over 70 officers conducted raids nationwide, ultimately arresting 17 suspects involved in a case with a total amount of $5,502 USDC.
(How I got caught betting on Taiwan elections on Polymarket?)
On Polymarket, there are trading pairs related to Taiwan elections. DeFi enthusiasts might think these prediction platforms are just a form of Gamble-Fi, not subject to off-chain regulation. However, law enforcement agencies see these transactions involving sensitive content as potential targets for policy enforcement. This is not unique to Taiwan; most governments take a similar stance on prediction markets—focusing enforcement on specific transactions.
An Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) reservist was formally charged for allegedly using military secrets to place bets on Polymarket. Authorities stated that the individual faces serious charges including security crimes, bribery, and obstruction of justice. It is suspected that they bet on whether military operations would occur, using classified information accessible through their service.
(Israeli soldier accused of using classified info to bet on Polymarket, facing military prosecution)
Some users may question: How can law enforcement find user data on an anonymous blockchain? In the 2023 election case, police mainly traced users who withdrew funds from centralized exchanges like Binance and OKX to Polymarket. Due to blockchain transparency, every transaction can be reviewed, allowing authorities to trace participant addresses and transfer records. Exchanges may also cooperate by providing KYC information upon regulatory requests.
Law enforcement traced participants’ on-chain interactions with centralized exchanges, requesting KYC data to identify real identities.
Democratic Party proposes banning officials and public servants from participating in political prediction markets
U.S. Democratic Congress members have proposed the “2026 Financial Prediction Market Public Integrity Act,” aiming to prohibit elected officials and government insiders from engaging in political prediction market transactions to prevent conflicts of interest between policy power and personal gain. The legislation was introduced after a wallet linked to a Trump associate placed bets before Venezuelan President Maduro’s arrest, earning $400,000 in profit.
According to the draft bill, it will:
Prohibit federal elected officials
Prohibit political appointees
Prohibit executive branch civil servants
Congress aides and staff
from participating in any prediction market related to government policies, actions, or political outcomes if they hold or can reasonably access material non-public information due to their official duties.
What is the “2026 Financial Prediction Market Public Integrity Act”? Why do 30 Democratic Congress members support it?
However, this framework only targets officials. U.S. CFTC Chair Michael Selig expressed support for exchanges strengthening self-regulation, emphasizing: “If anyone attempts manipulation, fraud, or insider trading, we will investigate and take action.” Kalshi also stated that no financial market can fully prevent misconduct, whether in stocks, banking, or prediction markets, but the platform will continue to allocate resources to detect and combat violations.
(Problems with Kalshi prediction markets! MrBeast staff suspected of insider trading, California gubernatorial candidate betting on own race)
Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour said the company has adopted insider trading rules similar to those of the NYSE and Nasdaq, prohibiting those with non-public information from trading.
This article on betting on Taiwan’s 2026 local elections: KMT’s 88% win rate! Betting may violate election law first appeared on Chain News ABMedia.
