Gate Daily Report (March 16): "Super Central Bank Week" Interest Rate Decisions Incoming; US Reveals Iran Conflict Resolution Timeline

Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a strong rebound over the weekend, currently around $72,490 as of March 16. The “Super Central Bank Week” is approaching, with global interest rate decisions influenced by the shadow of the Iran war. U.S. Energy Secretary Rick Perry stated that the Iran conflict will end “in the next few weeks,” after which oil supplies will recover and energy prices will decline. The International Energy Agency (IEA) revealed that emergency reserves of oil will soon begin flowing into the global market.

Macro Events & Crypto Hotspots

1. The Financial Times reports that this week will be the “Super Central Bank Week.” Although these central banks’ rate decisions are not expected to bring surprises, the policy guidance accompanying the decisions will be closely watched due to the ongoing Middle East conflict. The four major central banks—Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan—will announce their decisions on Thursday, Beijing time. Additionally, rate setters from Australia, Brazil, China, Canada, Indonesia, Sweden, and Switzerland will also meet this week.

Except for possibly the Reserve Bank of Australia, other central banks are likely to keep rates unchanged. However, the Iran war has increased the possibility of rate hikes later this year. The rate markets have responded hawkishly to upcoming energy price shocks; expectations of rate cuts by the Fed and Bank of England have been erased, replaced by the possibility of hikes. Expectations for the European Central Bank to raise rates this year have also increased. Since the war began, the Bank of Japan’s rate path has remained relatively unchanged.

2. U.S. Energy Secretary Rick Perry said that the Iran conflict will end “in the next few weeks,” after which oil supplies will recover and energy prices will decline. The IEA stated that oil from emergency reserves will soon start flowing into the global market, with stocks from Asian and Oceanian countries immediately available, and stocks from Europe and the Americas available by the end of March. Governments have committed to releasing 271.7 million barrels of crude oil from strategic reserves, 116.6 million barrels from mandatory industry reserves, and 172.2 million barrels from American members. Of the planned release, 72% is crude oil and 28% is petroleum products.

The Financial Times reports that Trump warned that if U.S. allies do not assist in reopening the Strait of Hormuz, NATO will face a “very bad” future. “Those benefiting from the strait should help ensure nothing bad happens there,” Trump said, noting Europe’s high dependence on Gulf region oil, unlike the U.S. He added, “If there is no response, or a negative response, I think the future of NATO will be very bad.” When asked what kind of help he needs, Trump replied “any necessary help.” He suggested allies send minesweepers, noting Europe has many more than the U.S. He also hinted at the possibility of targeting Iran personnel using drones and mines in the Gulf, and warned that the U.S. is prepared to strike Iran’s Halek Island oil hub and its oil infrastructure.

News Highlights

1. Tether CEO: Tether AI team to release a “breakthrough achievement” this week.

2. Aave and CoW Swap release contrasting post-incident reports on $50 million DeFi transaction mishap.

3. Analysis: To hold 1 million BTC by the end of the year, Strategy needs to add about 6,158 BTC weekly.

4. ShapeShift founder spent a total of 29.44 million USDT in the past 24 hours to buy 13,986 ETH.

5. Venus reveals progress in attack investigation: attackers took 9 months to accumulate tokens bypassing supply limits.

6. Analysis: “Super Central Bank Week” approaches, with the Iran war casting a shadow over global interest rate decisions.

7. Trump warns NATO: If not contributing to maritime security, face a “bad” future.

8. US media: The U.S. government may announce a multi-nation joint escort for the Strait of Hormuz as early as this week.

9. Commerce Department responds to “U.S. initiating 301 investigations on 16 economies including China”: Has lodged protests with the U.S.

10. Analyst: An address receiving 7,400 ETH from Tornado is leading tonight’s CAKE and THE collateral liquidation event.

Market Trends

1. Latest Bitcoin news: $BTC rebounded strongly over the weekend, currently around $72,490, with $58.07 million in liquidation over the past 24 hours, mainly short positions.

2. U.S. stock markets have fallen for three consecutive weeks amid prolonged Middle East conflict, negatively impacting energy prices and economic stability. As the war between the U.S. and Israel against Iran enters its third week, oil prices may continue to rise, shaking market confidence. NVIDIA’s GTC conference remains the only bright spot. The three major U.S. indices each declined over 1.2% weekly: S&P 500 down 0.6%; Dow Jones down 119 points, 0.3%; Nasdaq down 0.9%.

(Source: Gate)

3. According to Gate’s BTC/USDT liquidation map, with the current price at $72,580.10, if the price drops to around $70,712, total long liquidation exceeds $541 million; if it rises to around $73,615, total short liquidation exceeds $149 million. Short liquidations are significantly lower than longs; traders are advised to control leverage ratios to avoid large-scale liquidations during market volatility.

(Source: Coinglass)

4. In the past 24 hours, Bitcoin spot inflow was $1.54 billion, outflow $1.52 billion, net inflow $200 million.

(Source: Coinglass)

5. In the past 24 hours, net outflows occurred in contracts for $XAU, $DOGE, $XAG, $HYPE, $PAXG, indicating trading opportunities.

KOL Insights

Phyrex Ni (@Phyrex_Ni): “Had a happy weekend, though I didn’t buy any of the double coins I was holding because I was worried about a big move at any moment. This isn’t much related to BTC price, mainly because of concerns about liquidity during weekends and potential surprises. I was also worried that after the U.S. strikes Iran’s key export hub, Halek Island, oil markets might see a turbulent week, with fears of supply disruptions in the Middle East intensifying.”

“But just now, I saw the IEA announcement that member countries will collectively release 400 million barrels of emergency oil reserves. Implementation plans have been submitted, with Asia-Pacific members starting immediately, and Europe and the Americas beginning from late March.”

“This shows that global oil markets are extremely tense due to Middle East conflicts and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The IEA members are opening their reserves to inject some supply into the market, lowering oil prices and easing panic. This is the sixth and largest joint emergency release in IEA history. It should help reduce oil prices for next week.”

“Looking at Bitcoin data, trading volume increased slightly today, likely due to the war. Initially, fears of rising oil prices caused a dip, but then the IEA release pushed prices up again. Overall, the situation is quite simple: if oil prices ease, markets will improve; if oil prices stay tense, markets will face bigger trouble.”

“Next Thursday at 2 a.m. is the Federal Reserve’s rate decision meeting. Nothing exciting expected; no change in March, and it’s not Powell’s last meeting, so the impact should be limited to short-term sentiment. No need to overthink it for now.”

Today’s Outlook

1. China February industrial added value (year-over-year), previous 5.20%

2. China February total retail sales of consumer goods (year-over-year), previous 0.9%

3. Canada February core CPI (year-over-year), previous 2.7%

4. Canada February CPI (year-over-year), previous 2.3%

5. U.S. March NAHB housing market index, previous 36

6. Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng to lead a delegation to France for trade and economic talks from March 14-17