Geopolitics

Key factors, such as ETF flows, macro factors and on-chain supply favor a rally in bitcoin even as war risks linger.

Key factors, such as ETF flows, macro factors and on-chain supply favor a rally in bitcoin even as war risks linger.

Key factors, such as ETF flows, macro factors and on-chain supply favor a rally in bitcoin even as war risks linger.

U.S. President Trump threatened to impose a 50% tariff on China due to reports that China would ship air-defense systems to Iran. China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded, emphasizing its responsible stance on arms exports and opposing false allegations.

Gate News message: On April 13, the spokesperson for the Khatam al-Anbia Central Headquarters of Iran’s armed forces said that in the face of U.S. threats, Iran will decisively implement a “permanent mechanism to control the Strait of Hormuz.” The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow waterway connecting the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, and it is a major global oil shipping route.

The U.S. Navy began blockading the Strait of Hormuz starting April 13, U.S. Eastern Time, with all passage halted. Crude oil prices jumped nearly 10% in a single day, while Bitcoin fell 1.2% over the past 24 hours.

On April 13, XAU (gold contract) was trading at $4,717.28, down 0.56% over the past 24 hours. With the breakdown of the U.S.-Iran negotiations, market volatility has intensified; trading volume reached $1.34B, up 504.45% from last month. Liquidity is primarily concentrated across three centralized exchanges.

April 13, XAU is currently quoted at $4,717.28, down 0.56% over the past 24 hours. Geopolitical developments have affected trading activity, driving fluctuations in volume. Total trading volume for XAU futures across the entire network reached $1.34B, up 504.45% month-over-month. Liquidity on centralized exchanges is mainly concentrated on three leading platforms.

Bitmine rose to the NYSE main board on April 13 and increased its share repurchase authorization from $1 billion to $4 billion to support its stock price. Chairman Tom Lee said that U.S. stocks may have already bottomed out because the Iran-Iraq ceasefire agreement eased geopolitical risks and because the fundamentals of ether (ETH) have improved. Bitmine holds about 4.8 million ETH, and each 1% increase brings roughly $100 million in asset appreciation.

A whale-sized investor was already down $345k when betting that the Iranian regime would collapse on June 30, and the prior investment also failed. The market’s judgment rules are strict, and only under specific conditions is a regime collapse recognized; ordinary regime change is not considered.

The Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region signed a cooperation memorandum with the National Internet Information Office to advance technological innovation and support the high-quality development of the digital economy, covering areas such as artificial intelligence and blockchain, with the aim of implementing the country’s “15th Five-Year Plan.” Lee Ka-chiu said it will deepen cross-border data cooperation within the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area.

Gate News update. On April 13, Iranian Islamic Consultative Assembly lawmaker Seyed Mahmoud Nabaviyan, who took part in negotiations between the United States and Iran, posted on social media on April 12 listing three demands put forward by the United States, and then deleted them. The three demands are: The U.S. demanded that the benefits from the Strait of Hormuz be jointly shared with Iran; the U.S. demanded that all highly enriched uranium with a concentration of 60% be shipped out of Iran; and the U.S. demanded that Iran not carry out uranium enrichment activities during the next 20 years.

U.S. Central Command confirms that, starting April 13, it will impose a maritime blockade on Iranian ports, while international shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is not affected. WTI crude oil prices break above $105, and Bitcoin falls back to around $71,000, with global energy and crypto asset markets responding in sync.

The Hungarian opposition Tisza Party beat Viktor Orbán in the parliamentary election, ending his 16 years in power. It is expected to roll back the tough cryptocurrency regulatory measures imposed under the Orbán government and restore relations with the European Union. The new government taking office may also allow global financial platforms such as Revolut to return to the market, and it will further accelerate the EU’s process of unifying digital assets.

Gate News message, on April 13, U.S. President Trump said that he is building the "greatest stock market in history."

The U.S. Central Command announced it will implement a maritime traffic blockade for all vessels entering and leaving Iranian ports at 22:00 Beijing time on April 13, covering all countries’ ships in the Arabian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, but it will not affect ships traveling to and from non-Iranian ports via the Strait of Hormuz.

The U.S. imposes a naval blockade on Iran, causing the U.S.-Iran nuclear talks to fall apart. Market risk sentiment intensifies, and Bitcoin drops to $71,000, with a 24-hour decline of 3.1%. Traditional market capital flows into safe-haven assets, and analysts are divided on Bitcoin’s future trend, with $70,000 support acting as a key level.

The UK has decided not to participate in the U.S.’s blockade operation in the Strait of Hormuz, stressing the importance of supporting freedom of navigation and keeping the strait open, and is working with countries such as France to form a protection alliance.

The U.S. announces a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz to respond to the collapse of U.S.-Iran peace talks, triggering a sharp surge in oil prices. Oil prices rebound to above $100, and U.S. stock index futures fall. Gold and cryptocurrencies also slip; Bitcoin falls back to above 70K, and the total market value drops to $2.41 trillion.

Gate News message. On April 13, following a marathon-style peace negotiation in Islamabad that failed to reach an agreement, countries across the Middle East are rushing to push the United States and Iran back onto the negotiating table. Despite strong statements from both the U.S. and Iran, the door to diplomacy remains open, and the second round of talks could take place within the next few days. Regional countries are consulting with the United States to ensure they can extend the two-week, highly fragile ceasefire period announced on Tuesday evening. Iranian officials have put forward alternative proposals, including continuing symbolic uranium enrichment activities or reducing its stockpile of enriched uranium, but the two sides were unable to reach a compromise.