Classic Series] Venezuela Wins First Championship! Polymarket Prediction Flops, But Traders Profit Over 10 Million

Venezuela Defeats the United States to Win the Classic Tournament Title!

The highly anticipated 2026 WBC World Baseball Classic championship game has just concluded, with Venezuela defeating the United States 3-2 to claim their first-ever title.

The game was full of excitement. In the eighth inning, the U.S. team tied the game with a home run by Bryce Harper. In the ninth inning, Venezuela’s Luis Arráez drew a walk, and pinch-runner Javier Sanoja successfully stole second base.

Then Eugenio Suárez hit a crucial go-ahead double, driving in the runner to score and secure the victory.

In the bottom of the ninth, Venezuela brought in Daniel Palencia as a reliever, who threw a fastball at 99.7 mph to strike out Roman Anthony, sealing the win.

The Most Valuable Player (MVP) of this year’s WBC was also announced: Maikel García of Venezuela, who plays for the Kansas City Royals in Major League Baseball (MLB).

Polymarket Prediction Fails, Expert Trader Profits Over $340,000

After the event, the blockchain prediction market Polymarket settled the bets on the 2026 WBC champion, with trading volume approaching $3 million.

During the tournament, Polymarket traders generally predicted the U.S. team had a high chance of winning, while Venezuela’s chances remained below 50%, but the actual outcome was a prediction failure.

A trader with the wallet name “weflyhigh” became the biggest winner of this bet. According to their holdings, this trader accurately judged the situation, holding 200,000 shares betting on Venezuela winning (YES), and simultaneously holding 300,000 shares betting on the U.S. team not winning (NO).

Although the trader has not yet settled their positions, current data shows that their Venezuela position could yield a profit of approximately $137,899, while their U.S. position could profit about $206,849. Total profit exceeds $344,749 (about 10.97 million TWD).

MLB Experts’ Predictions Review: Multiple Predictions Missed

Looking back before the start of the 2026 WBC, MLB experts predicted that the top eight teams would be Puerto Rico, Canada, the United States, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, the Dominican Republic, and Venezuela.

However, according to the official tournament schedule, Mexico did not advance as expected, and Italy became a dark horse, breaking through to the quarterfinals and even reaching the semifinals before losing to Venezuela.

Initially, MLB experts favored the U.S. for the championship, the Dominican Republic for second place, and Japan for third. But the champion turned out to be Venezuela, which was not among the top three predicted by most experts.

Image source: WBC official Twitter 2026 WBC Quarterfinals Schedule and Final Results

The Japanese team, initially favored, was eliminated by Venezuela in the quarterfinals, and the Dominican Republic lost to the U.S. in the semifinals. The U.S. team advanced to the final but finished as runner-up, and the MVP Maikel García was not among the predicted top players, showing many surprises for MLB experts.

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