Gate News reports that on March 18, Polymarket prediction market data shows that within the past 24 hours, an address with a 77% chance of winning invested $4,500 to buy “Yes” on the event “Will the Strait of Hormuz return to normal before May?” Currently, the probability of “Yes” for this event is 25%.
According to market rules, “return to normal” is defined as: If, on any date from the market creation date until April 30, 2026, the 7-day moving average of ship arrivals at the Strait of Hormuz published by IMF Portwatch is equal to or higher than 60, the event settles as “Yes.”
On the 17th, Iraq was in negotiations with Iran, attempting to secure safe passage for its oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz; Iraq’s oil minister also announced that the government is preparing to inspect and restart the long-idled Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline within a week to restore some external exports while the strait remains unstable. On the same day, a UAE presidential advisor stated that the UAE might join any US-led international efforts aimed at ensuring the security of the Strait of Hormuz.
The address is 0x853c37a959a5791b849e3f3225c7f5963746bd03. Based on its trading history, this trader is not betting on whether the event will actually happen but may be engaging in profit-taking or stop-loss actions after opening a position.
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