How should retail investors grasp the bull market in the next two years?

The Cancun upgrade will become the super narrative mainline in 24 years, and now is the historical time to buy ETH.

Written by: NingNing

According to the Merrill Lynch clock, we (using the old American economy as the criterion) are about to enter recession from stagflation. The performance of the financial market at this stage is the early recovery of risky assets in anticipation of interest rate cuts. This is what triggered our current crypto One of the core factors for the rise of the market and the Nasdaq index.

Looking back at the historical data of Merrill Lynch’s clock cycle since the 21st century, financial markets are prone to black swan crises between the confirmation of recession and official interest rate cuts. It is this industry consensus that has caused a large number of institutions to miss out on the calf market since October.

However, although the black swan that is likely to occur in 24 years will clear out many people’s contract accounts and cause large red numbers in our investment portfolio PnL, it will not affect the arrival and interpretation of the two-year long-cycle bull market.

Therefore, at the end of 2023, it is necessary for us to plan how we will invest, manage money and trade in the bull market in the next two years.

So, I followed the example of the little black brother Authur in meditation and got the following 3 investment insights:

1 Steady expansion of personal balance sheet using Web3 Native method

Looking back at the rapidly rising heroes SBF, Dokwon, and Suzhu in the last bull market, one of their methods is to expand their balance sheets through DeFi lending platforms.

For example, stake ETH in AAVE, then use the pledged ETH as collateral, withdraw ETH at a high ratio (80%), and then invest these ETH into new narrative assets with potential Alpha returns.

The advantage of this is that it can not only obtain the Beta income of ETH, but also capture the Alpha income of new narrative assets.

The disadvantage of this is that it requires extremely high requirements for portfolio allocation and fund management.

2 Reduce the frequency of transactions, remain patient, and hold your investment portfolio for the long term

Last week, I used the backtrader library to conduct a comprehensive backtest on the trend strategy, regression strategy and long-term holding strategy of BTC, DOT, and Doge in the last bull market. As a result, the long-term strategy is far ahead of the trend strategy and the regression strategy.

In this bull market, I think it will be the same.

After constructing an investment portfolio according to the above method, you should watch more and move less, and learn to buy when no one cares and sell when there is a lot of buzz.

3 The Cancun upgrade will become the super narrative mainline in 24 years, and now is the historical time to buy ETH

This is consistent with what Xiao Hei Ge has learned. The Cancun upgrade will refocus the market’s attention on Ethereum and its ecological projects. ETH will rise to more than $5,000 amidst the hype of the Cancun upgrade and exceed $10,000 within the year.

that’s all.