Signal Turned Red in Special Metric: Analysis Company Shared What They Expect Next in Bitcoin

Cryptocurrency analysis firm Alphractal published a market update indicating that Bitcoin’s Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) Trend Signal could enter a long consolidation phase based on.

The SOPR Trend Signal, which measures transaction profitability on the blockchain, historically provides information about market sensitivity. According to Alphractal, when the signal turns red, it indicates that many addresses have achieved significant profits. If the metric rises above the upper threshold, this generally serves as a warning of a downturn for Bitcoin.

Alphractal, “In previous cycles, two consecutive red signals preceded the market weakening and in some cases signaled the beginning of a bear market.”

Alphractal, despite the expected decrease in trading profitability throughout 2024 and 2025, especially emphasized that this does not indicate the end of the current bull cycle. They pointed out the similar SOPR decrease at the end of 2021, but Bitcoin still managed to surpass the April 2021 peak, reaching an all-time high of $69,000.

Alphractal suggests that Bitcoin may have already passed its most profitable stage after reaching the highest level of the SOPR Trend Signal in the December 2024 peak. Looking ahead, they expect lower returns from on-chain activities and potentially support a market consolidation phase in the coming months.