Bitcoin (BTC) short-term strategy

Key support and resistance


Support level: $77,000-$77,500 (recent low + Fibonacci 38.2% retracement), strong support at $75,000 (psychological level + 50% retracement).

Resistance level: $80,000-$81,000 (previous chip accumulation area + descending trend line pressure).

Current dynamics: The price has retreated from the early session of $79,000 and is currently fluctuating around $78,000. If it falls below $77,000, it may accelerate the decline to $75,000.

Technical signals and operational suggestions


Short strategy: scale into short positions if there is a rebound to the range of $79,500-$80,500, with a stop loss set above $81,500 and a target of $77,000/$75,000.

Bullish Strategy: Aggressive traders can take a small long position around $75,000, with a stop loss at $73,500; conservative traders are advised to wait and observe for clear stabilization signals.

Technical indicators: The daily MACD death cross continues to diverge, RSI is below 50, trading volume is shrinking, and short-term bears are dominant.

Macroeconomic and fundamental risks


Federal Reserve Policy: June interest rate cut expectations cool, US Treasury yields rise, suppressing risk asset valuations.

Geopolitics: The escalation of the situation in the Middle East has triggered a demand for safe-haven assets, putting pressure on the liquidity of the cryptocurrency market.

On-chain data: Increased selling pressure from miners (approaching the halving on April 20), and rising net inflow to exchanges, indicating potential selling pressure.

 


Ethereum (ETH) short-term strategy



Key support and resistance


Support level: $1,500-$1,550 (psychological barrier + oversold area), if it breaks down or dips to $1,400.

Resistance level: $1,650-$1,800 (previous trapped positions + short covering pressure zone).

Current dynamics: The price has dropped from $1,596 in the morning to $1,540, with a 24-hour decline of over 13%. It is short-term oversold but the sentiment remains pessimistic.

Technical signals and operational suggestions


Short strategy: If it rebounds to around $1,650, you can try a short position, with a stop loss above $1,700 and a target of $1,500/$1,450.

Bullish Strategy: Aggressive traders can take small long positions near $1,500, with a stop loss below $1,480 and a target of $1,600-$1,650.

Technical indicators: RSI below 30 enters the oversold zone, but MACD bearish momentum has not weakened, requiring confirmation of a rebound with trading volume.

Fundamental risks and opportunities


On-chain liquidation: A whale address triggered the liquidation of 67,500 ETH due to the price dropping below $1,650, intensifying selling pressure.

Market linkage: The ETH/BTC exchange rate has hit a new low since the "3.12" event in 2020, showing a clear weak pattern.

Long-term value: Technical upgrades (such as Ethereum 2.0) and ecological expansion still serve as potential support, but macroeconomic environment improvement is needed.

 


Comprehensive Risk Warning



Policy and Data Risks: Pay attention to the U.S. PPI data on April 12 and speeches from Federal Reserve officials, and be wary of the risks of macro fluctuations amplifying market conditions.

Market sentiment: The fear and greed index has fallen to neutral, and if it cools further, it may trigger a chain sell-off.

Position Management: Avoid High
Summary: Bitcoin is still dominated by bears in the short term, and a rebound needs to stabilize above $80,000; Ethereum is oversold but has not stabilized, and liquidity risks should be monitored. It is recommended to adopt a range oscillation strategy, adjusting positions flexibly in conjunction with macro events. For leveraged operations, prioritize setting stop-losses to control unilateral risk exposure.



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