#BTC Market Analysis BTC has bounced back to the price range of 103000-104000, and many imitators have returned around 10%. The fear and greed index has returned to the average of 50, and there was another cry in the market. Why do you say that when the market comes, it is numbed? It seems that everyone's heart disease is present in the hut. In fact, today's price is almost the same as the price a week ago, especially ETH, the representative of alternative coins, the support level 2450-2550 is very difficult, and ETF funds continue to flow in. Now, if we are holding an imitator, we do not need to pay much attention to our own coin at the moment, and if we are holding the coin long-term, it is not worth paying attention right now. If you want to see it, just take a look at ETH, ETH can hold on, and there will be hope that the imitator will be in our hands.

After looking at the analysis of a group of analysts on the short-term movement of BTC, most believe that the decline will continue to deepen, as 60% believe that the price will range between 101,000-102,000, 30% see the price as between 92,000-93,000, and there are some who see the price around 88,000. I think this is normal, and there is no need for pessimism. This pullback from the top was something to expect, the quarterly BTC and ETH options were settled today at 16:00, and now the volume of short contracts in the market is 1.3 times that of long contracts, given the share of BTC. D In the market, I think the probability of a short-term BTC recovery will be slightly high.
Tomorrow the monthly line will close, and this round of rallies has already ended. When BTC enters a large sideways range, the main force will generally start allocating funds into valuable altcoins at this time. I believe that the experience in May may have prepared everyone for the future market direction in advance, as BTC broke through the previous high without warning, and ETH also exited the relatively independent market. However, 80% of rural houses without market heat and liquidity were present, and the market value decreased by 90% compared to the peak in December 2024. This confirms last year's judgment on this round of the bull market, the return to value, and the strength of stability always.
The dynamics of yesterday explored a problem, which is the psychological torture of the replicated centers, especially when the price relates to this center. How to choose has become a psychological barrier for most people, and this feeling of profit and loss is like a mountain pressing on the hearts of retail investors. In fact, I would like to understand a question, are the replicated centers decreasing for retail investors? However, from the perspective of ordinary people, it is difficult to form systematic and accurate data about the position of retail investors. Based on what I learned from the dynamic comments area, there should be many people who were full before March 25, including myself. But since the end of April, retail investors' positions have slowly begun to decline as BTC rises, and most of my friends have started to reduce their positions, replacing them with U in anticipation of the next round of retreat, and even some friends believe that a bear market is coming. That's why I said yesterday that this bull market seems strange.
After entering the year 2025, more people are believing the rumors that there is no bull market for altcoins, and their faith and confidence in holding coins have gradually faded amid many factors of uncertainty, as they surrendered their stakes in the midst of frequent volatility and instability. Based on past experiences, I always believe that any bear market definitely occurs when there is common FOMO among individual investors, but at the moment there has been no FOMO, so at this stage, we will not enter a bear market immediately.
In the sources of information we can access, the holdings of ordinary individuals cannot be measured in specific numbers, but certainly, traders in various altcoins can see it. You can ask the people around you; if everyone is reducing their holdings, or controlling them, or closing their positions, then the market in the upcoming period may be more optimistic. When most of us feel that a bear market is coming, and they believe that the market is likely to drop, it makes the decline less likely.
In short, go back to your own position, I personally suggest that the long spot position can be reduced, it can be defended, and it can be sold at a high price, but the callback is actually to boost confidence in being bullish, even if you choose to reduce the position at this time, waiting for a significant callback, it is better to hold a certain position, and you should be ready to prevent selling, if you sell and wait for the callback, then assume that there is an unexpected pullback again, I’m sorry for the continued last year or so.
At this stage, it is certainly the best time for the struggle between professional traders and individual investors. I advise against trying to prepare for a long-term bear market; you can attempt to buy during price increases with a negative outlook, but be cautious when betting on the decline. As for the questions in the comments section regarding specific months that will see a decline or increase, I do not have the ability to answer these types of questions, as the current global liquidity does not provide conditions to push the market upward. Even if good news emerges from the Trump family, such as Vice President Vance appearing to announce deals—events that were previously unimaginable—the market will continue to decline. However, the rapid decline and increase in short times is definitely a signal for the start of a bull market. It is difficult to find a return of the bull market, and I am afraid the market will suddenly start and you will not be in the vehicle.
As June approaches, my personal opinion regarding my positions is that I should not be blindly optimistic about the bullish market expectations, but I also cannot be rigid in my stance. I will continue to choose to hold the coins with large positions while waiting, without making any adjustments. As for the coins with small positions, I will choose to set stop-losses while waiting for compensation. Since we cannot predict the future, what we can do is manage our positions well.
Any breakout that may occur under panic feelings, you might see 2450 of ETH today, and after two or three days it will become 3000, this has not only happened before, but it will definitely happen in any upcoming time period.
Gingerbread Christmas, have a fun holiday☕#BTC