Jingyi Weekend Market Trend Summary and Outlook for Next Week's Non-Farm Payrolls

This weekend, the market fluctuated extremely gently, with Bitcoin maintaining a narrow range around 109465; Ethereum briefly dipped below 3895, then consolidated slightly around the 4000 mark. The current market lacks a clear direction, so it's advisable to maintain a strategy of high selling and low buying, and to engage in some short-term trading.

This week, the difficulty of going long in the market has significantly increased, with many long positions being trapped by market fluctuations at non-critical levels, even leading to liquidation, while short sellers have reaped substantial profits.

This week's market shows characteristics of a sharp decline and a crash. Although it was also bullied by Dog Brother, adjustments were made in time, and Jingyi has also steadily grasped a wave.

From Sunday evening to the early trading session on Monday, market fluctuations may gradually increase, and it is important to pay attention to the high and low point ranges formed on Friday and Saturday.

The current Bitcoin is still fiercely consolidating around the 109465 level, with a key resistance level above at 111950. Yesterday, the market experienced a deep correction, testing the support and resistance zone within the 107500-109465 range (108313-108780). It is currently in a state of balance between bulls and bears, making it easy to induce entry. Combined with the small V-shaped rebound seen in the North American session on Friday, the technical indicators that have been declining for several weeks and market sentiment have partially recovered. Additionally, the market liquidity over the weekend is relatively low, significantly reducing the probability of a crash, while the demand for fluctuations has clearly increased.

Key price points for ETH market

The key resistance level above is 4110, currently fluctuating around 4010. If it can stabilize above 4010, it could look towards the 4060-4100 range; if it cannot hold, it will look down to the support levels of 3893 and 3805. The logic is clear: if support is held over the weekend, a short-term shift between bullish and bearish may occur; if support fails, it will continue to decline.

Operation Suggestions

Last night around seven or eight o'clock, there was a clear ultra-short line signal switching from short to long. Currently, we are in a right-side trend on the 5-minute and 15-minute charts. Whether the 1-hour and 2-hour charts can form a right-side trend depends on whether effective support can be built around the 3920 line during the pullback. If a rebound stabilizes, we can focus on long opportunities.

Due to BTC and ETH prices being basically stable from yesterday to today, the analysis ideas, key points, and focus areas from yesterday and today remain consistent.

Outlook for Next Week's Non-Farm Payrolls

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change: Limited reference value, currently the market expectation is slightly positive.
Non-Farm Payroll (NFP): The current expectation leans towards a bearish outlook, but considering the trend over the past year, the high unemployment rate has not changed. From a long-term data perspective, it still supports the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts; in the short term, attention should be paid to the actual data outcomes - the August non-farm employment figure was only 22,000, which is close to the low point for the year.

In addition, seasonal factors need to be considered: from November to December, Europe and the United States will welcome the holiday consumption peak, during which the non-farm employment population is likely to rebound with the growth in consumer demand. Theoretically, this may introduce variables into the pace of interest rate cuts, but it is also necessary to take into account the factors of economic stimulus at the end of the year and the final push for annual KPIs. Whether this year's economic targets can be achieved depends largely on the performance in the last quarter.

For this non-farm payroll report, there are two core judgments:

1. If the market experiences a sharp decline and the actual data deviates little from the expected values, it is highly likely that the market will move independently, breaking free from the short-term impact of the data.
2. If the market rebounds after hitting the bottom, a wave of pullback is also normal - the previous decline was rapid, and there has yet to be a significant violent rebound; currently, there is a demand for a rebound in the market.

This time, the large and small non-farm payrolls present another long-term layout opportunity. If you want to seize the chance to take off, prepare for 5-10-30wu positions, sprint with full force, and challenge the 10x growth plan #成长值抽奖赢iPhone17和周边 #市场触底了吗？ #美联储官员集体发声 .