November 14, 2025 Cryptocurrency Market Depth Correction: Leveraged Liquidation Storm Under Triple Pressure Resonance

On November 14, 2025, the cryptocurrency market experienced a massive sell-off. Bitcoin (BTC) briefly fell below the critical psychological level of $100,000 during the Asian trading session, hitting a low of $98,000, while Ethereum (ETH) lost the support level of $3,200. Data shows that nearly 200,000 investors were liquidated across the network in the past 24 hours, with the total market capitalization evaporating by about 2%. A levered liquidation storm triggered by a worsening macro environment and endogenous risks is unfolding.

1. The Tipping Point: The Cross-Market Contagion of the "Black Thursday" in the US Stock Market

The overnight collapse of the US stock market has become the direct catalyst for this plunge. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 1.65%, the Nasdaq Index plummeted by 2.29%, and the S&P 500 Index dropped by 1.66%, with the technology sector leading the decline. Currently, the correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq Index remains above 0.8, and this strong correlation makes it difficult for encryption assets to stand alone amidst systemic risks.

It is worth noting that the stock prices of publicly listed companies related to the encryption ecosystem have experienced a "Davis Double Kill":

• Mining Stocks: MARA Holdings plummeted 11.31%, Riot Platforms fell 10.22%

• Strategic holdings stocks and exchange stocks: MicroStrategy (MSTR) fell 7.15%, Coinbase (COIN) fell 6.86%

The significant decline in the depth of these stocks reflects a notable increase in concerns within traditional financial markets regarding the profitability outlook of the encryption industry, with panic sentiment rapidly transmitting to on-chain assets through the funding linkage mechanism.

2. Policy Shift: The Fed's Hawkish Signals Crush Rate Cut Expectations

The core driving force behind this sharp decline stems from the sudden reversal of expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Several Federal Reserve officials (including Powell) have recently released clear hawkish signals, emphasizing the need to maintain a tightening stance to combat stubborn inflation, causing the market's pricing of a 25 basis point rate cut in December to plummet from over 70% to below 50%.

The shift in policy expectations has triggered two major chain reactions:

1. The rise in real interest rates suppresses the valuation of risk assets.

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has surpassed 4.11%, reaching a new high since 2024. This directly raises the holding costs of zero-interest assets such as cryptocurrencies, as funds shift from risk exposure to fixed-income assets in search of safe havens.

2. The deterioration of liquidity expectations exacerbates structural fragility.

Data shows that ETF capital inflows remain weak, with retail participation at a low level. 10X Research has monitored an accelerated selling behavior among long-term holders (HODLers), and its market model issued a bearish warning signal as early as mid-October. This resonates with the structural leverage risks exposed during the "flash crash" event on October 11, exacerbating the fragility of the market.

3. Endogenous Risks: The Liquidation Spiral of High-Leverage Markets

CoinGlass data shows that the total liquidation amount across the network in the past 24 hours has reached 463 million USD, with long positions liquidating at 342 million USD. Bitcoin has accumulated a liquidation intensity of 922 million USD in long positions near the 100,000 USD mark, and once it breaks through the key support level, it triggers a chain of forced liquidations.

The altcoin market has become a disaster zone, with BANK plummeting by 29.8% and PARTI dropping by 19.1%. The liquidity crisis has caused small-cap assets to decline significantly more than mainstream assets. This pattern of "mainstream coins dragging down, altcoins crashing" confirms that the market is in the mid-stage of a deleveraging cycle.

4. Technical Analysis: The effectiveness of the $98,000 support is key.

The current market is in a critical technical level testing period:

• Core Support Zone: $98,000 (corresponding to the lower edge of the previous consolidation platform)

If this position is lost, the next target will move down to $94,000 (the production cost support level for Bitcoin estimated by JPMorgan).

• First resistance level: $100,500 (to break this level, trading volume must exceed 1.5 times the 20-hour average volume)

• Trend Indicator: Daily MACD death cross confirmed. If it cannot return above $102,000 in the next 48 hours, the medium-term adjustment trend will be officially established.

5. Market Outlook: Uncertainty Window Before December FOMC Meeting

Short-term market sentiment recovery depends on two main variables:

1. Stability of US stocks

Tonight's performance of the US stock market at opening will directly affect the risk asset preference. If the Nasdaq continues to decline, BTC may be forced to test the support at a cost of $94,000.

2. Clarity of Policy Path

Before the FOMC meeting on December 12, any statements from Federal Reserve officials could trigger fluctuations in expectations. Key observation points include:

• December 6th November Non-Farm Payroll data quality (may be affected by government shutdown)

• Will the December CPI data alleviate concerns about stagflation?

In the medium to long term, if the Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish stance, the cryptocurrency market may enter a "deleveraging bear market" similar to 2018; if inflation data confirms an economic slowdown, the current position may become a mid-term bottom region.

6. Strategic Recommendations: Survival First, Profit Second

In the current environment of high volatility and low certainty, it is recommended that investors:

• Strict position management: Contract leverage does not exceed 3 times, and the position ratio of high-risk assets such as meme coins is controlled within 5%.

• Dynamic stop-loss setting: If it falls below $97,800 (2% below $98,000), one should exit decisively.

• Wait for the signal on the right: At least see $102,000 being broken through with volume, and the ETF must have a net inflow of over $200 million for three consecutive days before considering adding positions.

Core conclusion: This plunge is an inevitable result of the shift in macro policies combined with endogenous market risks. Market volatility will remain high until the Federal Reserve's policy path becomes clear. Until the liquidity crisis is completely resolved, cash management is preferable to aggressive bottom-fishing. Genuine trend opportunities will need to wait for the TGA account fund transmission to take effect (expected in mid to late December) and confirmation after the FOMC meeting's tone-setting. #CoinDesk10月Gate战绩来袭 #广场发币瓜分千U奖池 #美国结束政府停摆