Before every major event, the market always repeats an old script

Before every major market event, you’ll see the same familiar behavior repeating. Widespread bullish expectations. Long positions opened very early. Leverage increasingly high. Everyone believes that once the event happens, the price will skyrocket. But the market does not operate based on fairness. The market operates based on (positioning). The Market Does Not Reward Early Entrants Big surges do not reward early confidence. They only reward those who survive the cleansing process. When most traders have gone long before the event: Who will buy next?Where does the new demand come from? If everyone believes they will win, then someone must lose — because trading is about transferring money, not giving away free money. Why Does Price Usually Drop Before the Event? Price drops before the event not because of bad news. Not because the trend is breaking. But because the market needs to eliminate weak positions. What often happens: Stop loss gets hitHigh leverage gets liquidatedConfidence is shakenLate longs panic and cut losses That is the (cleanup) process. Only After the Cleanup Is Done Can the Real Move Begin The familiar scenario is usually: Upcoming big event → Crowd goes long → Price drops before the event → Weak hands are eliminated → Positions are rebalanced → The real wave begins The market doesn’t hate long traders. It only hates those who go in too early, too obvious, and too greedy. Smart Money Doesn’t Rush Before News Smart money: Does not rush in before the newsDoes not bet heavily when positioning is too crowdedDoes not need to be early correct They wait for the market to reveal itself: Who is overextending?Who is using too much leverage?Who cannot handle the volatility? When those people are forced out of the market, real opportunities appear. Why Is Heavy Long Positioning Before the Event Rarely Effective? Not because the idea is wrong. But because: That idea is known by too manyPeople have already placed their betsThe market has “seen” you In trading, being seen is a disadvantage. Trading Is Not About Following the Crowd Trading is: Staying when the crowd is forced to leaveSurviving first, profits come laterNo need to predict the top or bottom, just don’t get wiped out Take it day by day. Follow each rhythm. Prioritize survival — profits will come naturally afterwards