#大户持仓变化 Tonight at 9:30 PM, the five major U.S. economic indicators will be released, making this one of the most important external catalysts in the crypto space recently. The unemployment rate and non-farm payrolls, two heavyweight indicators, directly determine the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut pace next year and indirectly influence the short-term direction of risk assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Let's start with the most core observation dimension. The market currently expects about 50,000 new jobs and a steady unemployment rate at 4.4%. But the real key is not the data itself, but whether the actual release can surpass expectations. If employment data is far below expectations and the unemployment rate jumps accordingly, it will reinforce market bets on rate cuts, potentially leading to a surge in risk asset sentiment. Conversely, if economic data performs strongly, the recent hype around rate cuts is likely to cool off temporarily.

The second pitfall to be clear about—markets often price in expectations in advance. Recent market movements have been trading the logic chain of slowing economic growth → policy shift. The real risk is that even if the data appears positive on the surface (e.g., rising unemployment rate), the news may trigger short-term pullbacks due to profit-taking once it lands. Don’t be fooled by momentary fluctuations; the clearest directional judgment usually emerges half an hour to an hour after the data release, once market sentiment stabilizes.

How to position operationally? When the data is released, market volatility will inevitably be intense, and this is not a period for ordinary investors to participate. Consider two approaches: first, reduce positions in advance to actively avoid uncertainty; second, wait for the market to make a clear directional move, and once a definitive breakout signal appears, follow with light positions calmly. Holding heavy positions in a single direction at such moments is purely gambling.

For tonight’s market watch, don’t just focus on coin prices. The real-time reactions of the US dollar index and US stock futures often better convey the true market sentiment. They are like the first weather vanes of economic expectations.

Data can change rapidly, but the logical response remains the same—plan ahead, stay calm, and follow the trend.