#美联储降息 Can Non-Farm Payroll Data Reshape Short-Term Rate Cut Expectations?

Tonight at 21:30, the US Non-Farm Payroll report will be released, covering November data and revised October data. This report is not just about numbers; it influences market expectations for the probability of rate cuts in January next year — the current interest rate market has already fully priced in the possibility of no rate cuts. However, there is still room for the data to turn expectations around.

If the actual new employment significantly falls short of the consensus of "50,000+" or the unemployment rate rises notably above 4.4%, the market is likely to preemptively adjust its expectations for subsequent easing, pushing up the pricing of rate cut probabilities. Conversely, even if the data surpasses expectations and strengthens, the market may only interpret it as "seasonal adjustment noise + data recovery," with limited impact on the overall trend.

It is worth noting that the trading logic around the Fed chair nomination is undergoing a dramatic change. The previously dominant candidate with overwhelming lead has been disrupted, and the attitudes of senior officials are rapidly reshaping market expectations. Such news-driven rapid re-pricing phases are often the most volatile.

At 22:45 tonight, the US December S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMI initial figures will be released. Weak PMI data may boost market bets on two rate cuts next year, but if the figures come in unexpectedly strong, it could lead the market to reassess the necessity of the rate cut cycle, providing support for the US dollar.