NBA Prediction Market 42-Day Review: Making Money Isn't That Easy

Playing NBA in the prediction market these days, today's results are indeed disappointing—3 for 2, with a $200 drawdown. The other two games were lost in overtime, which shows the harshness of competition.

Carefully examining the trend, my current account is stuck in a volatile range. This period has taught me that prediction markets are far from as simple as they seem. It's not just about research; probabilities, luck, and unexpected changes can all influence the outcome.

Many people think prediction markets are a good place to win passively, but in reality, you still need to build data sensitivity and prevent overconfidence. Seemingly reasonable judgments can be overturned by dramatic reversals in the game, especially in overtime. The next step is to adjust the strategy—perhaps by reducing individual position sizes or optimizing selection logic.

Over 42 days, I've paid quite a bit of tuition, but this is the real feedback the market gives.