#大户持仓变化 Employment data speaks for itself. What is the Federal Reserve waiting for?

The November non-farm payroll report is coming, to be released promptly at 21:30 on Tuesday. This report includes all data for November plus some updates from October.

**Numbers hide secrets**

The surprising surge in September (adding 119,000 jobs in one month) is unlikely to be repeated. Market consensus is that this data is very likely to be revised downward, and the extent of the revision could be significant. Relevant institutions predict that the data "will fall back in the opposite direction."

What’s more concerning? Employment growth itself may have been systematically overestimated. Fed Chair Powell openly stated that since April, the Bureau of Labor Statistics data may have overcounted about 60,000 jobs each month. That’s not a small number.

**Market falls into a "freeze" state**

What is the current labor market like? It’s neither hiring on a large scale nor experiencing significant layoffs. Worker mobility has basically stalled, with activity levels lower than at the beginning of the year. According to Fed officials’ statements, they are highly alert to the risk of employment decline — and this risk has been increasing in recent months.

What’s even more unsettling is that job creation may have actually turned negative. Once companies start layoffs in earnest, a snowball effect often occurs — it’s hard to stop.

It’s not surprising that government data can be biased, especially at turning points when the labor market is slowing down or heating up. But when data is systematically questionable, policy-making must be more cautious.

**What will the Fed do?**

In the short term, the Fed has every reason to wait — to observe how the economy evolves. As tariffs’ headwinds gradually fade, the labor market is still expected to face challenges in the first half of 2026, with the unemployment rate possibly peaking at 4.5% early in the year.

But if the situation indeed worsens, the next step for the Fed is clear: if employment weakens significantly, a rate cut in 2026 is highly likely. The key trigger threshold is an unemployment rate reaching or exceeding 4.7% — that is the "decisive variable."

**Is there a chance for a rebound in the second half of the year?**

The labor market is expected to gradually improve only in the second half of 2026. The first half will still require patience, but this also provides the market with a clear timeframe.

For traders, the unemployment rate data will be the next key signal. It not only influences the dollar’s trend but also directly impacts risk appetite in the crypto market. Stay closely tuned.