2025-12-17 04:23:07

Recently, I've been pondering a question: Is there really a causal relationship between Japan's interest rate hikes and Bitcoin market movements?

Looking back at the data from the past year, it's quite interesting—

After the March 2024 rate hike, Bitcoin dropped by 23%. Another hike in July expanded the decline to 26%. Then in January 2025, Japan took action again, and Bitcoin fell even more sharply, with a 31% drop.

Three rate hikes, three declines. Coincidence or pattern?

What does Japan's rate hike mean? Simply put, it indicates a strengthening dollar, a shift in arbitrage trading sentiment, and a decrease in the attractiveness of risk assets. As a high-risk asset, Bitcoin is under pressure in this macro environment shift. Global liquidity tightening hits the crypto market first.

Now there are rumors of a possible fourth rate hike on December 19. If history repeats, should we prepare psychologically for potential price adjustments?

Of course, the market will never follow the exact script of history, but understanding this macro logic is better than blindly trading. What do you think?

BTC1,45%

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RektDetective

· 2025-12-19 07:35

Damn, three consecutive drops and I didn't notice, I need to do some homework. Is the Bank of Japan just the harvest machine of the crypto world? This logic makes sense, but brother, do you dare to bet that there will be no rate hike on December 19? When the arbitrage sentiment shifts, fortunes are gone—this is the power of macroeconomics. History will repeat itself, it's just a matter of time. Get ready to cut losses, everyone. The appreciation of the US dollar is unavoidable, friends. When liquidity tightens, it directly hits everything on the chain, with BTC leading the charge. By the way, does anyone really make money following this pattern? I haven't seen it.

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RugDocDetective

· 2025-12-18 14:21

It's the Bank of Japan's fault again, so all the declines in our crypto circle are thanks to the Japanese, right? Three rate hikes and three drops—this data looks quite neat, but it feels like an overinterpretation... There are many macro factors involved. If they really had a rate hike on December 19th, I bet five dollars it would still drop; anyway, there's always a reason to justify it.

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NFTDreamer

· 2025-12-17 04:54

Wow, these data look a bit scary. Three rate hikes and three drops, does it feel like the Bank of Japan is just here to dump? But on the other hand, is it really just Japan's rate hike to blame? It seems like global liquidity is the real key. If December 19th really happens, we need to be mentally prepared, another wave is coming. Wait, the friends who bought earlier must be feeling pretty uncomfortable now, haha. Actually, it's just that the macro environment has changed, and the crypto circle can't avoid it. This logic still makes sense.

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PancakeFlippa

· 2025-12-17 04:44

My goodness, is it Japan's fault again? It seems like everything in the crypto world can be blamed on the Bank of Japan... Wait, isn't this logic a bit too coincidental? Three consecutive drops are a bit outrageous. I do believe in liquidity tightening, but was the 31% drop really all due to the rate hike? Aren't there other factors involved? If December 19th really happens, I would definitely lose again... What's the point of mental preparation? Just break down mentally. Actually, understanding this macro logic is useless; the key still depends on how the big players move.

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FarmToRiches

· 2025-12-17 04:31

Wait, can we predict the coin price just because Japan raises interest rates? This logic is too straightforward, it feels a bit like overfitting historical data. Not to mention, a 31% drop is indeed shocking, but the previous rebound wasn't a big deal either. Is it just the data that you dislike?

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