Recent fund movements on Wall Street have revealed some interesting signals. Three major institutional addresses are continuously converting their US debt holdings into over-collateralized stablecoins, with trading frequency and scale both increasing.

The underlying logic points to a potential major adjustment in Federal Reserve policy. If the new Fed Chair adopts a more hawkish stance, the policy mix could become quite risky—stabilizing financial market sentiment through rate cuts while aggressively shrinking the balance sheet. This "loose monetary policy + tight liquidity" contradictory approach has been rare in recent years.

From public speeches, this potential decision-maker has repeatedly stated that inflation stems from excessive money supply, advocating for a strict separation of fiscal and monetary policies. The most radical view is that the current Fed balance sheet should be reduced by at least 35%. The actual implementation might be as follows: first, announce a 0.5 percentage point rate cut to eliminate market panic, while reducing liquidity by $80-100 billion per month, and stimulating economic growth through relaxed regulation as a cover for tightening policies.

From an investment perspective, some investors have already started acting. About 40% of US debt holdings have been shifted into stablecoins, with 70% of that cross-chain deployed into high-yield pools. The entire strategy revolves around one core idea: if the Fed’s balance sheet shrinks by more than $50 billion in a week, immediately start bottom-fishing; when the US dollar liquidity index falls below a key threshold, increase stablecoin positions.

This is not only a technical hedge but also a market-based reflection of macro policy expectation differences. Liquidity tightening often correlates with rising demand for stablecoins.