Oil market insiders are bracing for another round of volatility. The prevailing thesis? When the next geopolitical headline hits the wires—and it likely will—we should see crude prices rip higher pretty sharply. It's almost mechanical at this point: shock hits, prices surge, then reality settles in and the selling begins. The bounce could be substantial given current sentiment, but don't mistake it for a reversal. What typically follows is a grinding slide lower as supply fundamentals reassert themselves and the contango structure works against bullish positioning. This back-and-forth between headline-driven rallies and supply-surplus selling remains the dominant pattern in commodity markets right now.