The current Bitcoin chip concentration is 11%, and the probability of significant short-term price fluctuations is not high!!!

Rumor has it that on December 17th, on-chain data analyst Murphy stated that the chip concentration of Bitcoin is an effective leading indicator for observing "potential volatility" about to occur. When the chip concentration within 5% of the spot price rises above 13%, it enters the warning zone; above 15% is considered a high-risk zone. The more concentrated the chips, the greater the probability and magnitude of volatility triggered.

High chip concentration only warns of volatility and does not indicate direction. Currently, Bitcoin's chip concentration is at 11%, which is slightly above average and has not yet entered the warning zone above 13%. Therefore, the probability of a large fluctuation at this time is not high, and from a structural perspective, it does not meet the conditions for a "chain reaction."

Next, the market will also focus on the CPI data to be released at 21:30 on the 18th and the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision on the 19th. My personal judgment is that as long as there is no significant surprise, the impact on the market should be within the range of "small fluctuations," and it will not be as intense as on August 5th last year (when the chip concentration was 15% before August 5, 2024).