2025-12-17 11:50:34

#美国就业数据表现强劲超出预期 Tomorrow night at 9:30 PM, a Federal Reserve official will speak. This is not an ordinary routine announcement. He is one of the most "predictive" figures in the Fed system in recent years, and every word he says can easily be interpreted by the market as a policy signal for trading.

His stance is not considered extremely hawkish. On the contrary—he has always believed in "letting the data speak," and has even recognized the decline in inflation earlier than many market participants. Because of this rational approach, a slight change in his wording can lead to over-interpretation by the market.

Tonight, there are three key points to watch:

**First**, does he acknowledge that the current decline in inflation is a sustainable trend?
**Second**, will he emphasize the restrictive effects of high interest rates on the economy and financial conditions?
**Third**, does he hint that the "necessity of maintaining high interest rates in the long term is decreasing"?

Two possible scenarios:

If he continues to repeat "more time is needed to confirm inflation stability" and "it's too early to discuss a policy shift," expectations for rate cuts will be suppressed, the dollar will appreciate, U.S. Treasury yields will rise, and risk assets may experience short-term emotional sell-offs, with the crypto market likely to enter a defensive mode first.

Conversely, if he says "current interest rates are already sufficiently restrictive" or "inflation is moving toward the target," even without a specific timeline, the market will interpret this as dovish. At that point, risk appetite will rebound, and indices and cryptocurrencies could see a wave of recovery.

The core logic is actually very simple: **everything depends on the expectation gap**.

The market has already bet on a dovish stance, but he chooses caution—that's a sign of a long squeeze. The overall market is on the defensive, but he slightly loosens his stance—that's a short squeeze.

So, there's no need to pick a side tonight. Wait until he finishes speaking, then observe how U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar move, and see whether risk assets follow or diverge, and whether trading volume supports the trend—these indicators hold the answers.

He is not the creator of trends, but often the last person to adjust market sentiment before a trend begins. Once you understand this, tonight's volatility is not noise but an opportunity.

$BTC $ETH

BTC1,43%

ETH0,9%

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ForkItAll

· 2025-12-18 00:50

Here's another script of "His one comment causes the market to overinterpret," tired of hearing it haha Wait, the key is indeed the expected difference—everyone's betting on dovishness now. If he still keeps a cautious face... the crypto market needs to cool down first Instead of guessing in advance, it's better to watch how US bonds fluctuate, which is more honest than any press release People who rely on data to speak often cause emotional sell-offs, quite ironic Tonight's just a test of "stop-loss or add positions," let's see what the volume says His kind of "rationalist" is the most dangerous because the market has already bet heavily on the opposite side Feels like the dollar is about to show some moves again, let's see how BTC responds then

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WagmiWarrior

· 2025-12-17 12:16

I'm afraid that once he opens his mouth again with "data still needs confirmation," the crypto market will suffer another wave of sharp declines, which is really annoying. Whether dovish or hawkish depends on this wave; the expectation gap determines everything. This guy indeed has some skills. Hey, don't rush to buy the dip yet. Wait until the yields and dollar movements are clearer. Only by observing the volume can we determine if it's a real rise or just a false fall. Basically, it's a gamble on whether he'll loosen his stance. If he does, it could trigger a short squeeze; if he stays firm, it might kill the longs. This game is so exciting. He's quite rational in his speech; often, a single word can trigger excessive market interpretation. We need to listen carefully tonight. The expectation gap strategy either hits the jackpot or gets headshot, but not taking this move might mean missing out on a month's gains. How's the market now... a bit defensive, seems like waiting for his signal.

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CryptoWageSlave

· 2025-12-17 12:09

Everyone is watching this guy's every word for trading, a single sentence can create a huge pitfall. The key is the expectation gap; saying too early can lead to being cut in the opposite direction. Wait until the data is out to see how the dollar moves, then follow along. If they ease up this time, the market recovery will be just around the corner.

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NFT_Therapy_Group

· 2025-12-17 11:56

Just waiting to see how he steps into the trap tonight, the expectation gap is the best way to harvest the leeks. Dovish talk is everywhere, but if they really want to cut interest rates, it's just a matter of one sentence. Defensive mode has been activated, let's see what he says before deciding whether to buy the dip. Rather than guessing, it's better to wait for the data to speak; anyway, we've already figured out the temperament of risk assets. The Federal Reserve's show still depends on their mood, so annoying. After all this talk, nothing is more straightforward than a CPI data release. Tonight's volatility—whether it's a sell-off or a short squeeze—will be clear on the minute chart. The expectation gap is the real ambush point; everything else is just虚的.

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AmateurDAOWatcher

· 2025-12-17 11:51

It's this guy again causing trouble. I bet he'll still be spouting the "more data" rhetoric tonight. Wait and see, don't rush to go all in; the key is the expected divergence. Whether he's dovish or hawkish depends on how he opens his mouth... Right now, the crypto world is betting on rate cuts, and a sudden hawkish turn would be disastrous. Actually, instead of listening to him, it's better to directly watch US Treasuries and the dollar—that's the real story. Honestly, I'm a bit tired of being led around by a single official every time. Is it a dovish signal or just another empty promise? We'll see after the close. This guy's words are like a market mirror—can't pretend otherwise.

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