#数字资产市场洞察 12.17 Evening Crude Oil Technical Review

The expectations of Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations and the ongoing global supply surplus remain the core factors suppressing oil prices. The breakdown of the 56 level during this decline is particularly critical—once it is lost, the medium-term bearish pattern is essentially confirmed. The current rebound is merely short-term capital stop-loss and reversal, a technical correction that cannot change the overall bearish trend.

The daily chart shows four consecutive declines, with all moving averages aligned downward, clearly outlining a medium-term downtrend channel. Looking at the 1-hour chart, the previous resistance at 57.595 still cannot be broken. Although short-term moving averages have adjusted, the overall bearish structure remains unchanged. Rebounds will still fall back, with clearly insufficient momentum.

On the indicator side, the MACD has formed a golden cross below the zero line, with limited volume in the red bars, indicating weak buying strength. The upper band of the Bollinger Bands is firmly pressing down on the price, and a selling signal is emerging around 56.31. All these details point to one conclusion: the bears still hold the upper hand, and rebounds are opportunities to short.

**Trading Strategy**: Light short positions around 56.5-56.8
**Stop Loss**: 57.2
**Targets**: 55.5, 56.0

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