2025-12-17 13:50:12

#以太坊行情解读 # Japan's Central Bank Rate Hike Cycle and Ethereum Market Performance Review

In the past two years, the Bank of Japan's policy adjustments have served as an important window into macroeconomic trends in the crypto space. Let's review what has happened during this period—

**March 2024, End of an 8-Year Negative Interest Rate**
Around 11:30 AM Beijing time, the Bank of Japan announced that the benchmark interest rate would be raised from -0.1% to 0%. Although the market had already anticipated this move, the reaction was quite noticeable: Ethereum plunged 5%-10% on the day and in the following days. It seems investors were a bit stunned, after all, this was the first time in 8 years.

**July 2024, Second Rate Hike (+25bp)**
The central bank raised rates again, causing Ethereum to drop straight from around 3300 to about 2100. In just a few days, the decline was shocking.

**January 2025, Further Policy Tightening (+25bp)**
A more aggressive move. After the rate hike announcement on January 24, Ethereum entered a week-long correction, with consecutive daily drops of 6%-8%, ultimately halving in value with a 30% total decline. This impact was clearly stronger than the previous two rounds.

From this rhythm, each tightening step by the central bank causes significant short-term pressure on crypto prices—from minor fluctuations to sharp declines, with the intensity gradually increasing. The market’s process of digesting policy shifts warrants ongoing attention.

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HodlVeteran

· 2025-12-20 13:12

The Bank of Japan's recent moves have taught me a clear lesson: a 30% cut is no joke. Whenever the central bank moves, the market crashes—I've seen this routine back in 2018, but I didn't expect it to be so brutal this time. Damn, as I always say, in the face of macro factors, retail investors are just little brothers. Those who should have already exited have already left. Is there still anyone daring to go all-in at such a critical moment? I advise you all to be kind. As I get older, watching these ups and downs, I actually think holding Bitcoin is the safest. Ethereum's recent surge has been quite fierce. The frustrating part is, even predicting it didn't help me dodge it. I guess I just moved too slowly.

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ChainDetective

· 2025-12-20 12:57

Whenever the Bank of Japan moves, cryptocurrencies have to kneel down. This pattern is really stable. --- A 30% cut in half, that's really incredible. I was stunned during that wave in January. --- Wait, based on this logic, will the next interest rate hike directly break through the bottom? --- Every time I predict the outcome, I still get proven wrong. It's a routine operation in the prediction circle. --- I just want to know when the rebound will happen. If this continues, I'll be waiting until the Year of the Monkey to buy the dip. --- If the central bank keeps playing this way, we might as well forget about winning effortlessly. The macro environment is really tough. --- By the way, how are those who said the bottom is in doing now... --- Falling from 5% to 30%, the destructive power of this interest rate hike cycle is maxed out. --- Japan's strategic changes are indeed a weather vane; the crypto circle should keep a close eye. --- It feels like each round is more intense than the last. Next time, should they cut it in half directly?

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BearWhisperGod

· 2025-12-19 17:55

The Bank of Japan's rhythm this time is amazing, always hitting the market with coins right on time Oh my, that wave in January was a direct halving, so macro policies are the real meat grinder What if they raise interest rates again in May, can ETH still be bought at the bottom, brothers Central Bank: I don't kill people, in the crypto world there are true destined ones Wait... if you think about this logical chain backwards, should we operate in the opposite way? Three rounds of interest rate hikes over three years, how much have the coin prices fallen in total... I can't even calculate Bank of Japan: "I bought a watch last year"... Ethereum: "My money from last year" So now, should we buy the dip or keep lying flat, everyone This is basically a timer, entering two weeks before each rate hike is always the right move Interest rate hikes by the central bank = market cleanup, I only look at this indicator now

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DataBartender

· 2025-12-17 14:20

The Bank of Japan is really the number one killer in the crypto world, getting more and more ruthless.

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StakeTillRetire

· 2025-12-17 14:18

The Bank of Japan's three consecutive moves have really hit Ethereum hard... A 30% drop is indeed brutal, but on the other hand, this is the power of macro factors... No one can really withstand the central bank's rate hikes, and the coin prices are dancing along with the policies... I thought the March wave was nothing serious, but it resulted in a bloodbath in July... Wait, looking at it this way, every step the central bank takes seems to be a trigger, so should we still play the game... But thinking carefully, we've long seen through this logic of the rate hike cycle... A 30% cut, many people must have lost a lot in this wave... Does this rhythm count as already being set? Or are there still variables... Eight consecutive weeks of decline, it's really uncomfortable to watch, I wonder how many people have been forced to cut losses here... The central bank is really an invincible reverse indicator in the crypto world haha...

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WhaleWatcher

· 2025-12-17 14:16

The Bank of Japan's recent actions indeed hit ETH hard... a 30% drop that makes people feel heartbroken --- Once again the Bank of Japan, once again rate hikes. Does this rhythm feel more and more intense? --- Damn, that wave in January cut straight in half? Why didn't I catch this hot spot? --- The macro environment is becoming increasingly important. When the central bank moves, the coin price trembles accordingly --- So is the key to operate in the opposite direction? Should we accumulate when the central bank raises interest rates? --- The decline from 3300 to 2100... those who should have bought the dip didn't, and those who should have sold didn't --- The first rate hike in 8 years resulted in such calm? It got more aggressive later. Are they trying to push us all out? --- It feels like the market is always confused by the central bank's policy shifts. We really need to pay more attention to macro factors --- This wave of decline has increasing power levels. Will the next rate hike directly cut in half? --- The Bank of Japan raising interest rates = Ethereum crashing. Is this formula so absolute? Are there no counterexamples?

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degenwhisperer

· 2025-12-17 14:08

The Bank of Japan is really ruthless, each time more aggressive than the last --- Wait, is the logic saying that macro tightening means we should buy the dip in Ethereum? --- A 30% cut in value, I just want to ask, is there still anyone buying the dip haha --- When the central bank raises interest rates = the currency price crashes, is this pattern now so obvious? --- Every time they say they predicted it in advance, but in the end, they still get their scalp taken --- It feels like Bitcoin and Ethereum react differently, has anyone compared them? --- From negative interest rates to now, my position is also negative interest rate, ugh ugh ugh --- No, the decline in January was too exaggerated, didn't it continue to fall for a week without rebounding? --- Is the Bank of Japan's influence that significant? Or are other factors causing the drop?

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LiquidationWatcher

· 2025-12-17 13:57

The Bank of Japan's recent moves are really aggressive, each one more impactful than the last. The crypto world still has to be influenced by macro factors.

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