#数字资产市场洞察 The Bank of Japan's policy shift over three and a half years and the intense volatility in the crypto market

From ultra-loose to normalization, every step taken by the Bank of Japan has shaken the global markets. Looking back at this process, we can see the profound impact of policy on crypto assets.

On March 19, 2024, around 11:30 Beijing time, the Bank of Japan announced that the benchmark interest rate was raised from -0.1% to 0%—marking the end of an 8-year era of negative interest rates. Although the market had already priced in this expectation, $ETH remained under pressure on the day of the announcement and in the following days, with a decline of 5%-10%.

By July 31, the central bank moved again, raising interest rates by 25 basis points. This reaction was even more intense: $ETH plummeted from around 3300 to 2100.

The real test came on January 24, 2025. After the second 25 basis point hike, Ethereum entered a more than one-week-long downward trend—experiencing daily declines of 6%-8%, with a total decline surpassing 30%. The market’s sensitivity was evidently increasing.

This set of data clearly demonstrates that the central bank’s policy shift is no longer just headline news; it is directly influencing the price discovery mechanism of the crypto market. For traders, paying attention to the next moves of the Bank of Japan has become an important perspective for understanding market rhythm.