Attention all traders! Tonight at 21:30, the US Non-Farm Payrolls report will be released, and this data could have a profound impact on the global crypto market. This is not just an ordinary economic indicator release; it is a key basis for the Federal Reserve's assessment of the US economy's health and directly determines the pace of US dollar liquidity release.

Why is this report particularly critical? Because of the previous US government shutdown, tonight's release will include data for two months—November's latest employment figures and the revised data for October. Notably, the October unemployment rate data has been temporarily withheld. This data quality issue has even raised concerns from the Fed Chair publicly, who previously stated that since April, non-farm payroll data may have overcounted approximately 60,000 jobs each month. In other words, the seemingly stable job market may have actually experienced a slowdown in growth.

What are the market predictions now? Major institutions generally estimate that November's new jobs will be between 40,000 and 50,000—this is a stark contrast to last year's growth rate. Regarding the unemployment rate, it is expected to rise from 4.4% in October to 4.5%, hitting a new high since 2021. Simply put, the difficulty of finding a job is clearly increasing.

What does this mean for the crypto market? The Federal Reserve's interest rate policy directly influences global funding costs. Weak employment data typically prompts the Fed to consider rate cuts or maintain easing, which increases liquidity supply. Conversely, strong employment data may reinforce rate hike expectations. The current market is already highly volatile, and this report is likely to be a significant turning point in the near future. Manage your risks well, and pay close attention to the 21:30 data release—this may be more important than watching candlestick charts.