On December 17th, Federal Reserve Board member Waller's latest remarks drew market attention. He explicitly stated that the labor market is "very soft," current job gains are underwhelming, and he believes that rate cuts will help repair employment conditions.

The deeper implications of this statement are worth pondering — it's not that inflation has already won, but that employment is the first to suffer.

Although price increases remain above target levels, Waller provided a set of signals: inflation is expected to continue declining in the coming months; inflation expectations have been firmly "anchored"; maintaining a high interest rate environment will only cause greater harm to employment.

From another perspective — if there is no easing soon, the cost could be even heavier than inflation itself. This also explains why the current Federal Reserve, while appearing tough externally, frequently signals "easing" during meetings.

From a market perspective, the key question becomes: is a sudden rebound in inflation the main threat? or is persistent employment slowdown dragging down growth? or are both risks emerging simultaneously? Each scenario would have a completely different impact on liquidity and asset allocation.