Hearing that the Bank of Japan is going to raise interest rates, many people's first reaction is one word—drop. Especially when it comes to gold and silver, it looks like the sky is about to fall. But frankly, this kind of reaction is actually just a conditioned reflex; people who truly understand the market wouldn't think this way.

Let's be clear: raising interest rates does not necessarily mean gold and silver will fall. Looking back at history, we know that after Japan raises interest rates, gold and silver don't always decline; in fact, many times they rise. The core issue isn't "whether to raise rates," but "how to raise" and "how the market perceives it."

There are roughly two approaches.

**First—Sudden Impact**

If the Bank of Japan unexpectedly raises rates sharply without any warning, catching the market off guard, it could indeed trigger a major plunge in global risk assets. At this moment, it's not that gold and silver are worthless, but that everyone rushes to sell everything to raise cash for emergency needs. In the short term, gold and silver are bound to be affected. However, this kind of decline usually doesn't last long. Once the panic subsides, safe-haven buying will push gold and silver back up, often leading to the most vigorous gains.

**Second—Gradual and with Psychological Expectations**

This time, the rate hike has already been digested by the market, and the pace isn't aggressive; everyone has already anticipated it. Under these circumstances, the market won't overreact, and the stock market won't crash. Naturally, there's no reason to "sell everything off."

In fact, several factors are favorable to gold and silver. As the Japanese yen interest rates rise, the dollar tends to weaken. When the dollar weakens, gold and silver usually have room to move. Additionally, Japan's debt scale is significant, and rate hikes naturally raise concerns about worsening fiscal pressure, leading investors to seek safe-haven assets.

This December's rate hike by Japan was actually well anticipated by the market. In simple terms, it was already priced in.