2025-12-17 22:20:36

The most practical way to determine whether it's a bull or bear market is actually very simple—observe the rhythm and strength of the price movements.

What does a bull market look like? When it rises, it does so smoothly and decisively; when it falls, it drags on. Conversely, a bear market is characterized by sharp declines, but when it rebounds, it moves in small, incremental steps.

How to understand this in the context of market trends? The declines in a bull market are mostly profit-taking by longs or normal technical adjustments. Essentially, it's not that no one wants the asset, but that buyers are waiting for a more suitable entry point. You might see some shocking negative news, but the decline is often tightly contained, and funds quickly step in to buy the dip. At this point, a correction becomes part of the trend; hesitating too long means missing the boat.

A bear market rebound is a completely different story. It may look fierce, but in reality, it's short-term liquidity being squeezed out or shorts actively covering their positions. The rally is fast and large in magnitude, but if buying momentum can't keep up, it gets knocked back down immediately. The most frustrating part of a bear market is mistaking a rebound for a reversal—just as the price surges, it gets trapped again.

So the core logic is: judging bull or bear isn't about how much the price has risen or fallen, but whether there's someone willing to buy the dip and whether the rally can hold.

Bad news keeps coming, but the price just won't fall further, or even drops more as people start buying the dip? That indicates the bullish structure hasn't broken down yet. Conversely, if there's a lot of good news but the rebound can't go far, always opening high and closing low? Then you should have a sense of respect for the market.

As for the current trend, is it a bull or bear? The answer isn't in others' opinions or emotions; it's in the "strength and rhythm" of the declines and rebounds. Understanding this is the key to truly grasping the market.

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ApeWithAPlan

· 2025-12-20 14:59

Basically, it all depends on whether it can be sustained or not. The true story is in the activity of the dip buyers; don't be fooled by the rebound. This theory is useful, but I'm afraid of trembling hands during real trading. Pace and strength—sounds simple, but actually test your mentality. Bad news that can't be pushed down is indeed a signal, but I always judge it the wrong way haha. This market is really hard to grasp right now; the rebound is quick, but it feels like I can't catch it. The key is whether someone is really bottom-fishing; don't just look at the K-line.

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GasFeeCryBaby

· 2025-12-20 05:34

No problem with that, the rhythm is the real truth. --- The most frustrating part of a bear market rebound is that it always opens high and then declines. --- The key is whether there are buyers to catch the decline, that’s brilliant. --- Good news piles up, but the rebound doesn’t go far, so I just mute myself. --- The strength and rhythm of the rise and fall are the correct ways to read the market. --- As long as the bullish structure isn’t broken, no matter how bad the bad news is, it can’t bring the price down. I believe in this logic. --- I’ve been using this method to judge, it’s much more reliable than just looking at candlestick charts. --- Bad news keeps coming, but the price still can’t fall? That’s a bottom signal, jump on it directly. --- Bear market rebounds are fast and large, looking exciting, but they are all false signals and easy to get trapped. --- It’s not about how much it can rise, but whether it can hold its ground—simple, straightforward, and effective.

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OffchainOracle

· 2025-12-17 22:48

You're not wrong; rhythm and intensity are the real truth.

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StakeHouseDirector

· 2025-12-17 22:36

Exactly right, a sense of rhythm is the key Rebounds keep pushing up step by step, and I immediately put my hands in my pockets, how many times have I fallen into this trap Only when it doesn't fall further does it mean the bulls are truly in control, this judgment is spot on

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GasGoblin

· 2025-12-17 22:31

This theory sounds smooth, but in actual operation, it's still easy to be tricked by a rebound.

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LuckyHashValue

· 2025-12-17 22:22

Exactly right, I understood the moment the rebound was instantly crushed back down.

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