2025-12-17 23:21:10

Recently, I've been pondering whether the four-year cycle theory of Bitcoin is still in effect. Looking at this recent downward correction starting from October of this year, it seems like there has been a 5 to 6 month consolidation cycle by the Spring Festival. Such a prolonged correction is indeed quite rare.

From another perspective, either the four-year cycle remains valid, meaning the bear market will continue; or the cycle has already become invalid, and conversely, a bull market could be triggered next. Based on a timeline analysis, the Spring Festival coincides exactly with the late stage of the consolidation, which makes this timing quite special logically.

What do you all think? Is the four-year cycle still reliable? Will the Spring Festival be a turning point?

BTC1,46%

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MetaverseHobo

· 2025-12-19 04:05

Hey, why do I feel like the cycle theory is becoming more and more mystical? Every time, it sounds so convincing. Spring Festival turning point? Ha, the last time I heard someone say that was last year.

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ser_we_are_early

· 2025-12-17 23:51

The four-year cycle should have become obsolete long ago. Why are you still stuck on it? Instead of waiting for the Spring Festival turnaround, it's better to think it through yourself.

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DarkPoolWatcher

· 2025-12-17 23:49

I think, there's been too much talk about cycle theory. Instead of worrying about whether it works or not, it's better to look at the capital flow... Before the Spring Festival, is this wave mainly the main players offloading or building positions? It's clear once you look at the on-chain data.

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AllInDaddy

· 2025-12-17 23:49

Spring Festival turning point? I'm skeptical. This round of correction is quite intense.

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OnlyUpOnly

· 2025-12-17 23:42

The four-year cycle should have become invalid long ago. The market has been played out by institutions, so what cycle are you expecting? When there are more people, it's easier to fall; when retail investors are buying the dip, they end up being the ones to sell off. That’s the real cycle. Spring Festival turning point? Bro, you're too optimistic. Let's look at the macro environment first. Been shaking out the market for half a year and still not done? Feels like a pretext for cutting the leeks. Instead of guessing the cycle, it's better to focus on on-chain data—that's the real signal.

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