2025-12-18 01:40:24

#美国就业数据表现强劲超出预期 I am cautiously optimistic about the future market. The monthly chart of Bitcoin has already formed a death cross, which is not a positive technical signal—only when the fast line returns to the zero axis can we truly talk about a bull market. Can the 80,000 level hold? I don't dare to easily buy the dip and go long in the first half of next year.

The macro environment is even more concerning. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 are both at historical highs; a correction is inevitable. Why should Bitcoin be immune? Moreover, there are no interest rate cuts expected next year—instead, there are expectations of rate hikes and a lack of liquidity release. These are not sufficient conditions for a rally.

Looking at institutional factors, during the previous bull market near its peak, frequent collapses occurred—Three Arrows Capital, FTX, Huobi, and other big players went bankrupt one after another. This round, the price dropped from 126,000 to 80,000, a 36% decline, and the previous cycle saw a drop from 69,000 to 44,000, also 36%... Then it continued to fall from 44,000 to 15,800, a 63% decline. Will history repeat itself? I need to think about it.

BTC1,46%

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PoolJumper

· 2025-12-20 17:28

Damn, the monthly death cross signal really can't hold up anymore. Can we defend the 80,000 level? I don't have confidence either. Next year’s rate hikes + lack of liquidity, why would Bitcoin be able to stand apart? Good question. The 36%→63% move, do we need to go through that again? Then we really need to stay calm and wait. Don't rush to take the hit.

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GateUser-5854de8b

· 2025-12-19 08:32

A death cross is a death cross, this wave isn't that simple, brother.

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VirtualRichDream

· 2025-12-19 01:10

The death cross is really uncertain; whether 80,000 can hold depends on various factors. Anyway, I don't dare to buy the dip anymore. Honestly, the NASDAQ and S&P are already at their peaks. Why should Bitcoin be able to stand apart? With such high interest rate hike pressures next year, it’s really hard to hold. Dropping from 126k to 80k is a 36% decline, and falling from 44k to 15,800 is a 63% drop... This pattern is a bit frightening. Does history really repeat itself like this? With such poor macroeconomic conditions and tight liquidity, you tell me there's still a bull market? I can't believe it. Only when the fast line crosses the zero axis would I dare to talk about a bull? How long would that take? Maybe we should wait and see. During the FTX and Three Arrows Capital collapse, there were many warnings, and this round feels even riskier. It's better to be cautious. I won't make any moves in the first half of next year. I'll wait for clearer signals before acting.

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CryptoGoldmine

· 2025-12-18 02:10

I actually think there's a problem with this logical chain. The death cross is indeed unattractive, but you missed a piece of data — the network hash rate has increased by 8.2% over the past 30 days, which is actually a bullish signal compared to technical indicators. From the perspective of difficulty adjustment cycles, now is indeed a good time for low-cost accumulation, but you shouldn't go all in. It's recommended to focus on ROI rather than obsessing over price support. As for those explosion cases, they basically boil down to leverage issues; miners' survival logic is completely different from institutions. History may not necessarily repeat itself, but probability is always the enemy of traders.

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UnluckyMiner

· 2025-12-18 02:05

Oh no, another 36% drop... It really feels like history is repeating itself.

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OneBlockAtATime

· 2025-12-18 01:54

It's really hard to stay steady at this level of 80,000. The death cross on the monthly chart is just a terrible signal that makes me uncomfortable. Nasdaq is almost at the top, so why should the crypto market be immune? Logically, it doesn't make sense. After a 36% decline in history, it then dropped another 63%... Just thinking about it is a bit scary. I think I'll wait until the first half of next year.

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Degentleman

· 2025-12-18 01:44

Oh no, are we about to reenact the drama of dropping from 44,000 to 15,800 again? Just thinking about it is scary.

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