【December 18 Market Briefing】

The latest joint survey results from the Federal Reserve show that tariffs remain a significant concern for businesses. Analysts generally expect that next year's inflation rate could reach 4%. More importantly, Fed Chair Powell recently signaled a dovish stance—current monetary policy remains restrictive, and there is room for rate cuts. In terms of interest rates, current levels are 50-100 basis points above the neutral rate, and with the robust employment market, these factors support the Fed's continued easing cycle.

This dovish tone immediately impacted the markets, with the US dollar index falling sharply, while gold and silver markets surged. For the crypto market, such shifts in liquidity expectations often create new opportunities.

Today’s data schedule is quite packed and requires close attention:

**20:00** The Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision as of December 18, with market expectations of a 25 basis point cut.

**21:15** The European Central Bank’s interest rate decision will be released.

**21:30** The US will publish the November unadjusted CPI year-over-year, November seasonally adjusted CPI month-over-month, and initial jobless claims for the week ending December 13. The market expects the CPI YoY to be 3.1%. Whether this figure materializes will directly influence market perceptions of inflation prospects.

**21:45** ECB President Lagarde will hold a press conference on monetary policy, and her statements often serve as an important reference for subsequent market pricing.

Currently, we are in a window of multiple central bank policy meetings, with risks and opportunities both amplifying. It is recommended to continue closely monitoring the implementation of various data releases.