#以太坊行情解读 Friends holding ETH, stop cheering yourself up. Looking at the 1-hour candlestick chart, it’s clear that we’re not building a bottom—simply put, the bears are tired, taking a breather, recharging, and ready to push down again.

The current situation is very clear: after breaking through several key support levels, ETH has directly entered a downtrend channel. The low-range oscillation sounds like a rebound? Actually, that’s a false move by the bears, just a pause; the downtrend is far from over.

From a technical perspective, MACD is firmly below the zero line, standing guard for the bears, with all the power in their hands; RSI shows some signs of movement but lacks overall strength, unable to generate any upward momentum; Bollinger Bands are holding the price tightly at the lower band, with the middle band continuously moving downward, indicating the bears’ momentum remains strong. When falling, they strike fiercely; during rebounds, they are especially stingy—this is the standard bear rhythm.

From here on, ETH is likely to follow these scenarios:

**Illusory Rebound (60% probability, most likely to occur)**
Price finds short-term support in the 2789-2834 range, then nudges up to 2900-2950 to take some small profits, only to be strongly pushed back down by the bears, continuing to test the lows. This kind of rebound is like a false front, and those who let their guard down are most likely to get caught.

**Bear Power Accumulation Phase (30% probability)**
Waves of a few candles at the low range, bears gathering strength for another downward push. This is a waiting game.

**Black Swan Reversal (10% probability)**
V-shaped reversal? Only if a real positive signal hits hard, otherwise don’t get your hopes up.

**Practical Advice for Holders**

If you’re holding ETH, especially if you’re deeply trapped at high levels: when the rebound reaches around 2900-2950 but fails to gain momentum, consider reducing your position or cutting losses; once it breaks below 2780, don’t hesitate—if it’s time to run, run.

**For Traders Looking to Operate**

The safest approach is to follow the bears’ rhythm. You can open short positions when the rebound reaches 2900-2930 and shows weakness, or wait for a break below 2789 to chase the short, with a stop-loss set above 2980—that’s enough.

**About Bottom-Fishing and Going Long**

Bottom-fishing may seem tempting, but that’s a game only top short-term traders dare to play, and only if your position is small enough to ignore the risk, with stops pre-locked. Ordinary traders should really avoid messing with this; better to give up than lose money.

Although the market is a bit dull in the short term, opportunities to earn coins will come. The key is patience—wait for the real signal to appear. $ETH