The reasons for bearishness are very straightforward. Bitcoin's monthly chart has already formed a death cross. Under this situation, why should we believe that a major bull run will follow? The fast line needs to return to the zero axis, and the slow line must also follow the adjustment, only then can we see a real rebound.

Every rebound now is easily eaten up by bearish candles. It’s very difficult to stabilize at the 80,000 level. At least within the first half of this cycle, I have no confidence in long-term holding. The moving average structure has already broken down and cannot be repaired in the short term, so the strategy must shift—abandon the bottom-fishing approach and switch to short-term trading.

This judgment differs from some bullish analysts' views. But from the perspective of the monthly indicator, the essence of a bear market rebound is just a rebound, not a trend reversal. We should wait until the technical indicators are truly repaired. For now, the goal is to stay alive and leave this position.