No longer following the old script! Bitwise: Bitcoin breaks the 4-year cycle, aiming for a new high in 2026

Crypto asset management firm Bitwise states that Bitcoin will break the “4-year cycle” pattern in 2026 and hit a new all-time high. Bitwise advises clients to prepare for a markedly different Bitcoin market in 2026, arguing that as institutional funds flood in, this asset is entering a mature stage, and the familiar script investors have known is about to be rewritten.

Bitwise points out that the long-held “4-year cycle” rule is breaking down due to diminishing halving effects, expected declining interest rates, and after a large-scale liquidation at the end of 2025, the market’s over-leverage situation has been corrected.

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan stated in a blog post on Monday:

The forces that drove the 4-year cycle— including Bitcoin halving, interest rate cycles, and leverage-driven booms and busts— now have much less influence than in previous cycles.

The so-called “halving” refers to the Bitcoin network reducing the reward for miners producing new blocks by half every 4 years, thereby slowing the growth rate of Bitcoin supply by 50%. This mechanism has long been regarded as the core engine behind Bitcoin’s bull and bear cycles.

However, Matt Hougan expects that the strong capital inflows brought by Bitcoin spot ETFs and the convenient trading channels provided by major brokerage platforms will drive Bitcoin to set new historical highs next year, rather than repeating the past “crash after halving” fate.

Hougan further refutes the stereotype that Bitcoin is an “extremely risky asset.” He shared an astonishing data point: Bitcoin’s volatility in 2025 was even lower than that of Nvidia, a chip giant. As ETFs broaden the holder base, Bitcoin’s volatility has shown a downward trend.

Meanwhile, Hougan predicts that Bitcoin’s correlation with US stocks will further decrease. The key factors influencing its price in the future will no longer be just macroeconomic conditions or stock market sentiment, but also catalysts from within the crypto industry itself, including clearer regulations, widespread adoption, and product innovation.

Bitwise states that, based on these trends, 2026 is expected to be a breakthrough year for Bitcoin as an investment portfolio asset, attracting hundreds of billions of dollars in new institutional capital inflows.

• This article is reprinted with permission from: “BlockCast”
• Original title: “Breaking the ‘4-year cycle’ pattern! Bitwise research: Bitcoin hits a new high again in 2026”
• Original author: Block Sister MEL