#数字资产市场洞察 The impact of US CPI data on the crypto market, ranked by shock intensity, is as follows: Core Monthly Rate > Core Yearly Rate > CPI Monthly Rate > CPI Yearly Rate.

**If CPI is below expectations** — this signals a cooling of inflation. The market will reinforce expectations of subsequent easing by the Federal Reserve, the dollar will depreciate, and US Treasury yields will plunge. A large amount of profit-seeking capital will flow from low-risk assets into cryptocurrencies. Mainstream coins will lead the rally (risk aversion diminishes + liquidity is ample), followed by altcoins bouncing back. In extreme cases, short positions may be liquidated en masse, pushing prices higher and creating a "short squeeze" acceleration.

**If CPI meets expectations** — no new surprises, and the market has already priced in the impact. Cryptocurrencies will generally enter a narrow range of oscillation, with funds observing between stablecoins and mainstream coins, and volatility quickly subsiding. In the short term, no clear direction is visible; only positive or negative ecosystem news can trigger small fluctuations.

**If CPI exceeds expectations** — this indicates persistent inflation. Investors will worry that the Federal Reserve will maintain high interest rates or delay easing, leading to a stronger dollar and tighter liquidity. Risk assets will suffer, and cryptocurrencies will generally come under pressure and decline. High leverage long positions are prone to chain liquidations, with the decline accelerating; due to weaker liquidity, altcoins often fall faster than mainstream coins, with funds flowing back into stablecoins or dollar assets.

**The role of mainstream coins** — they are a barometer of macro liquidity and a safe haven in the market. They react most quickly to CPI data releases, with relatively controlled volatility, and institutional fund flows will directly influence short-term trends.

**Altcoins are more sensitive to risk appetite** — in the context of "CPI easing + employment weakening" dual easing, their gains can far surpass mainstream coins; conversely, in a "CPI tightening + strong employment" tightening scenario, their declines can be even more severe, and small-cap coins with poor liquidity may even "flash crash."

Tonight’s data, as long as it deviates from expectations, whether positive or negative, will cause significant market volatility. The key moment has arrived — whether to give the market an "adrenaline shot" or pour a "cold shower," the data will speak. Those with positions should closely monitor the data, and those looking to buy the dip should wait until the data is released and the trend is clear before acting.

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